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The Dynamics of Irrigated Perennial Crop Production With Applications to the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia.

机译：多年生灌溉作物的动态及其在澳大利亚默里达令盆地的应用。

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摘要

Perennial crop production is inherently dynamic due to several salient physical characteristics including an establishment period of several years, long lives in commercial production, and path-dependence of yields on input use and other exogenous factors such as weather. While perennial crop production is properly regarded as a dynamic investment under uncertainty, the literature on regional agricultural production is typically static, deterministic, and rarely are the dynamic biophysical elements of perennial crops represented. This paper seeks to extend the literature by developing a dynamic regional model of irrigated agriculture with representative perennial and annual crops. The model explicitly accounts for the age composition of perennial stocks including crop establishment period and age-dependent yields and input use.;The model is applied to wine grape production in the Riverland region of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia using a representative agricultural household to analyze joint consumption and investment decisions. Borrowing is allowed but the assumption of perfect capital markets is relaxed; the household faces an interest rate schedule that is increasing in the amount of debt held. We explore the dynamic properties of the model including the existence and uniqueness of a steady state and the conditions required for convergence to the steady state. Because the state-space required for an age-explicit regional model is too large for conventional dynamic programming methods, a running horizon algorithm is used to approximate an infinite horizon dynamic programming solution.;The effects of the age structure of initial perennial plantings are investigated. Starting with an initial age distribution of grape stocks different from the steady state levels leads to dampened oscillations in area planted by vintage with eventual convergence to a steady state with an equal age distribution. The impact of water entitlement reductions for several possible scenarios under the proposed MDB Plan are estimated under both deterministic and stochastic frameworks, the latter of which is based on Monte Carlo simulations that draw on the distribution of historical water diversions in the region. Also, the long-run water demand for perennial crops is identified by systematically running simulations over varying water allocation levels and capturing the farmer's marginal willingness to pay for water.
机译：多年生作物的生产具有固有的动态性，这归因于几个显着的物理特性，包括建立期长达数年，商业化生产的寿命长以及产量对投入使用和其他外在因素（如天气）的路径依赖性。虽然多年生作物的产量被适当地视作不确定因素下的动态投资，但有关区域农业生产的文献通常是静态的，确定性的，很少代表多年生作物的动态生物物理要素。本文试图通过建立具有代表性的多年生和一年生作物的动态灌溉农业区域模型来扩展文献。该模型明确说明了多年生种群的年龄组成，包括作物生长期，与年龄相关的产量和投入使用。该模型通过以下方法应用于澳大利亚墨累达令盆地（MDB）里弗兰德地区的酿酒葡萄生产：代表农户分析联合消费和投资决策。允许借贷，但放宽对完美资本市场的假设；家庭面临的利率表正在增加所持有的债务数量。我们探索了该模型的动态特性，包括稳态的存在和唯一性以及收敛到稳态所需的条件。由于年龄显式区域模型所需的状态空间对于传统的动态规划方法而言太大，因此使用运行视野算法来近似无限视野动态规划解决方案。;研究了初始多年生植物的年龄结构的影响。从不同于稳态水平的葡萄储备的初始年龄分布开始，导致葡萄种植面积的振荡减弱，最终收敛到具有相同年龄分布的稳态。在确定性框架和随机框架下，对拟议的多边开发银行计划下几种可能的方案中减少用水权的影响进行了估计，后者基于蒙特卡洛模拟，该模拟借鉴了该地区历史性调水的分布。此外，通过对不同的配水水平进行系统的模拟并掌握农民的边际购水意愿，可以确定多年生作物的长期需水量。

著录项

  • 作者

    Franklin, Bradley Scott.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Riverside.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Riverside.;
  • 学科 Economics Agricultural.;Water Resource Management.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2013
  • 页码 101 p.
  • 总页数 101
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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