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首页> 外文学位 >Ecological predictors of local motor vehicle theft and changes over a decade: 1990--2001.
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Ecological predictors of local motor vehicle theft and changes over a decade: 1990--2001.

机译：1990--2001年十年间当地汽车盗窃和变化的生态预测因子。

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摘要

There are more than one million motor vehicles stolen in the United States each year worth an estimated eight billion dollars. National motor vehicle theft rates decreased each year during the 1990s but have begun to climb again in the new millennium with each year since 1999 experiencing an increase.;This dissertation is a study of rising motor vehicle theft and the effects of ecological change over a decade in the medium size Midwestern city of Peoria, Illinois. The study employs both a series of two-wave cross-sectional analyses and a series of longitudinal lagged ecological effects analyses to study the impacts of community structure on motor vehicle theft. The study addresses three specific areas of shortcomings in the existing literature: (1) reliance on relatively large units of analysis; (2) prevalence of single-wave cross-sectional designs; (3) and use of macro level data to explain micro level community processes derived from a limited number of theoretical perspectives. The study draws upon the underpinnings of multiple theoretical models of crime including social ecology, routine activities, human territorial functioning, and the subcultural diversity model. Additionally, the study identifies alternative theoretical perspectives by which motor vehicle theft could be explored. The research utilizes two unique sources of data: police department records of motor vehicle thefts, and the 1990 and 2000 decennial censuses. Regression analyses are used to identify predictors of motor vehicle theft. The cross-sectional analyses found several differing significant relationships when compared to the results of the longitudinal analyses suggesting that the pattern of relative change is different. For example, SES is a significant predictor when studied cross-sectionally but is less so when studied longitudinally. Heterogeneity has a greater predictive impact longitudinally than it does cross-sectionally. Census block group instability has a paradoxical relationship to motor vehicle theft when studied longitudinally that is not present in cross-sectional analyses.;The findings support the assertion that there are multiple theoretical explanations of motor vehicle theft available when studied at the macro level and that micro level data collection is necessary to fully operationalize the social processes that are directly related to vehicle theft.
机译：在美国，每年有超过一百万的汽车被盗，价值约八十亿美元。在1990年代，全国汽车盗窃率每年都在下降，但是在新的千年里，自1999年以来，每年的盗车率都在上升。;本论文研究了十年来机动车盗窃率上升和生态变化的影响。位于伊利诺伊州中西部城市Peoria。该研究采用了一系列的两波横断面分析和一系列的纵向滞后生态效应分析，以研究群落结构对机动车辆盗窃的影响。该研究解决了现有文献中的三个具体缺陷领域：（1）依赖于相对较大的分析单位； （2）单波横断面设计的普遍性； （3）并使用宏观水平的数据来解释从有限的理论角度得出的微观水平的社区过程。该研究借鉴了多种犯罪理论模型的基础，包括社会生态学，例行活动，人类领土功能和亚文化多样性模型。此外，该研究还确定了可以探索机动车辆盗窃的其他理论视角。该研究利用了两个独特的数据源：警察部门的机动车盗窃记录以及1990年和2000年的十年一次人口普查。回归分析用于识别机动车盗窃的预测因素。与纵向分析的结果相比，横截面分析发现了几种不同的重要关系，表明相对变化的模式是不同的。例如，当进行横断面研究时，SES是一个重要的预测指标，而当进行纵向研究时，SES则不那么重要。异质性在纵向上比横截面上具有更大的预测影响。纵向研究时，人口普查区组的不稳定性与机动车盗窃有悖论关系，而这种情况在横截面分析中是不存在的;研究结果支持这样一个论断：在宏观层面上对机动车盗窃有多种理论解释，并且微观数据收集对于全面实施与车辆盗窃直接相关的社会过程是必不可少的。

著录项

  • 作者

    Walsh, Jeffrey A.;

  • 作者单位

    City University of New York.;

  • 授予单位 City University of New York.;
  • 学科 Sociology Criminology and Penology.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2005
  • 页码 311 p.
  • 总页数 311
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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