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Sequential analysis of credibility and actuarial risks.

机译:可信度和精算风险的顺序分析。

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摘要

This dissertation introduces and develops sequential methods in actuarial science. In particular, it focuses on the assessment of credibility, estimation of credibility factors, and testing for full credibility based on sequentially collected actuarial data.;Actuaries routinely make decisions that are sequential in nature. During each insured period, the new claims and losses data are collected, and together with the new economic and financial situation and other factors, they are taken into account for the calculation of revised premiums and risks. For all the insureds, several decisions are made regularly, at least once per each insured period: whether the coverage should continue, whether the coverage should be changed and what premium should be charged.;To address the sequential nature of actuarial data collection and many actuarial decisions, the classical sequential methods and sequential ideas are applied to actuarial models. Specificity of actuarial data is contained in the frequency-severity model where the total consists of a random number of losses (frequency), each loss being also a random variable (severity).;As in classical sequential testing, during each insured period, the corresponding hypothesis can be either accepted or rejected, or sampling will continue. To derive this sequential test, asymptotic normality of the total loss is used along with the method of integrating out the nuisance parameters, as in the sequential t-test. Proposed tests control the error rate and power. They result in a rigorous set of conditions under which a cohort becomes fully credible.;Following sequential decisions, methods are developed for the computation of sequential P-values. P-values have a different meaning in sequential analysis, where test statistics obtained from samples of different sizes are compared. Inversion of the derived sequential test leads to a construction of a sequence of repeated confidence intervals (RCIs) for the credibility factor.;The real loss data are confidential, but the actuarial data generated by the Casualty Actuarial Society Public Loss Simulator are similar to the real data sets. Sequential methods proposed and developed in this dissertation are applied to the Public Loss Simulator data, and their performance is evaluated.
机译:本文介绍并发展了精算科学中的顺序方法。特别是,它着重于对信誉的评估,对可信度因子的估计以及基于顺序收集的精算数据进行的完全可信性测试。精算师通常按顺序进行决策。在每个保险期内,都会收集新的理赔和损失数据,并与新的经济和财务状况以及其他因素一起考虑,以计算修正的保费和风险。对于所有被保险人,定期做出若干决定,每个保险期间至少要做出一次决定:承保范围是否应继续,承保范围是否应更改以及应收取的保险费。;为了解决精算数据收集的顺序性问题,许多精算决策,经典的顺序方法和顺序思想被应用于精算模型。精算数据的特殊性包含在频率严重性模型中,其中总数由随机数量的损失(频率)组成,每个损失也是随机变量(严重性)。与传统的顺序测试一样,在每个保险期内,相应的假设可以被接受或拒绝,或者将继续抽样。为了获得此顺序测试,与顺序t检验一样,使用总损耗的渐近正态性以及对干扰参数进行积分的方法。建议的测试控制错误率和功耗。它们导致了一组严格的条件,在此条件下,同类群组变得完全可信。;根据顺序决策,开发了用于计算顺序P值的方法。 P值在顺序分析中具有不同的含义,在顺序分析中,将从不同大小的样本获得的测试统计数据进行比较。推导的顺序测试的反演导致构造可信度的重复置信区间(RCI)序列。实际损失数据是机密的,但伤亡精算协会公共损失模拟器生成的精算数据类似于真实数据集。本文提出和发展的顺序方法被应用于公共损失模拟器数据,并对其性能进行了评估。

著录项

  • 作者

    Xu, Rui.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Texas at Dallas.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Texas at Dallas.;
  • 学科 Statistics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2012
  • 页码 87 p.
  • 总页数 87
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 康复医学;
  • 关键词

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