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Applications of physics to finance and economics: Returns, trading activity and income.

机译:物理学在金融和经济学中的应用:回报,交易活动和收入。

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摘要

This dissertation reports work where physics methods are applied to financial and economical problems. Some material in this thesis is based on 3 published papers [1, 2, 3] which divide this study into two parts. The first part studies stock market data (chapter 1 to 5). The second part is devoted to personal income in the USA (chapter 6).; We first study the probability distribution of stock returns at mesoscopic time lags (return horizons) ranging from about an hour to about a month. While at shorter microscopic time lags the distribution has power-law tails, for mesoscopic times the bulk of the distribution (more than 99% of the probability) follows an exponential law. The slope of the exponential function is determined by the variance of returns, which increases proportionally to the time lag. At longer times, the exponential law continuously evolves into Gaussian distribution. The exponential-to-Gaussian crossover is well described by the analytical solution of the Heston model with stochastic volatility.; After characterizing the stock returns at mesoscopic time lags, we study the subordination hypothesis with one year of intraday data. We verify that the integrated volatility Vt constructed from the number of trades process can be used as a subordinator for a driftless Brownian motion. This subordination will be able to describe ≈85% of the stock returns for intraday time lags that start at ≈1 hour but are shorter than one day (upper time limit is restricted by the short data span of one year). We also show that the Heston model can be constructed by subordinating a Brownian motion with the CIR process. Finally, we show that the CIR process describes well enough the empirical Vt process, such that the corresponding Heston model is able to describe the log-returns xt process, with approximately the maximum quality that the subordination allows (80%--85%).; Finally, we study the time evolution of the personal income distribution. We find that the personal income distribution in the USA has a well-defined two-income-class structure. The majority of population (97--99%) belongs to the lower income class characterized by the exponential Boltzmann-Gibbs ("thermal") distribution, whereas the higher income class (1--3% of population) has a Pareto power-law ("superthermal") distribution. By analyzing income data for 1983--2001, we show that the "thermal" part is stationary in time, save for a gradual increase of the effective temperature, whereas the "superthermal" tail swells and shrinks following the stock market. We discuss the concept of equilibrium inequality in a society, based on the principle of maximal entropy, and quantitatively show that it applies to the majority of population.
机译:本文的研究工作是将物理方法应用于金融和经济问题。本论文的某些材料基于3篇发表的论文[1,2,3],将本研究分为两个部分。第一部分研究股票市场数据(第1至5章)。第二部分专门讨论美国的个人收入(第6章)。我们首先研究在大约一个小时到一个月的介观时间滞后(收益范围)内股票收益的概率分布。在较短的微观时间滞后,分布具有幂律尾部,而对于介观时间而言,分布的大部分(超过99%的概率)遵循指数规律。指数函数的斜率由收益的方差决定,收益的方差与时间滞后成正比。在更长的时间里,指数定律不断演变为高斯分布。具有随机波动率的Heston模型的解析解很好地描述了指数到高斯的交叉。在表征了中观时滞的股票收益之后,我们用一年的日内数据研究了从属假设。我们验证了从交易次数过程构造的综合波动率Vt可以用作无漂移布朗运动的从属变量。该从属关系将能够描述从1小时以上但小于1天(一天的时间上限(一天的时间上限受一年的较短数据跨度限制))的盘中时间滞后的股票回报率的85%以上。我们还表明,可以通过使CIR过程服从布朗运动来构建Heston模型。最后,我们证明了CIR流程可以很好地描述经验Vt流程,从而使相应的Heston模型能够描述对数返回xt流程,并且具有从属关系所允许的最大质量(80%-85%) 。;最后,我们研究了个人收入分配的时间演变。我们发现,美国的个人收入分配具有定义明确的两收入阶层的结构。大部分人口(97--99%)属于低收入阶层,其特征是指数Boltzmann-Gibbs(“热”分布),而较高收入阶层(占人口1--3%)具有帕累托幂规律(“超热”)分布。通过分析1983--2001年的收入数据,我们发现“热”部分在时间上是固定的,除了有效温度逐渐升高外,“超热”部分的尾部随着股票市场而膨胀和收缩。我们基于最大熵原理讨论了社会中的不平等均衡概念,并定量地表明了它适用于大多数人口。

著录项

  • 作者

    Silva, Antonio Christian.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Maryland, College Park.;

  • 授予单位 University of Maryland, College Park.;
  • 学科 Physics General.; Physics Condensed Matter.; Economics Finance.; Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2005
  • 页码 114 p.
  • 总页数 114
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 物理学;财政、金融;经济学;
  • 关键词

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