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Foot and mouth disease in non-endemic areas: Surveillance and early detection.

机译：非流行地区的口蹄疫：监测和早期发现。

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摘要

This thesis is an investigation of the nature of foot and mouth disease (FMD) detection in areas where the disease is not endemic. Twenty-four FMD epidemics that occurred in non-endemic areas between 1992--2003 were studied. Reasons for delayed detection of the viral incursion included: (1) misdiagnosis on the basis of clinical signs; (2) deliberate concealment of disease by a farmer; (3) very subtle/inapparent clinical signs; and (4) false-negative laboratory tests. There was a disparity in the size of these epidemics; 21 of 24 consisted of less than 150 outbreaks, and 3 involved more than 2000 outbreaks. The dispersion of infected animals through hubs (for example, large animal markets) in the animal movement network seemed to be the critical causal factor in the magnitude of the large epidemics.; The remainder of the thesis focussed on the large 2001 UK epidemic. During this epidemic, the identification of cases was based almost solely on clinical signs. The sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value of clinical diagnosis were 94.7%, 99.6% and 99.9% respectively. The positive predictive value was lower (76.3%), reflecting the low prevalence of disease.; Logistic regression was used to investigate how factors such as species, location, method of detection and time were associated with: (1) the outcome of the diagnostic process, and (2) time to detection of cases. Cases were identified by active surveillance (tracings, patrols, pre-emptive culls), passive surveillance (investigations initiated by farmer or private veterinarian), or serological surveillance (with no prior clinical signs). Most cases were identified by passive surveillance; these were detected earlier than cases found by any other form of surveillance, and more accurately than those detected by active surveillance. Active surveillance detected subtle cases of disease in which clinical diagnosis was more difficult.; These findings suggest that a key goal of a surveillance system for FMD should be to ensure detection prior to the dissemination of infected animals through a hub. Reporting of suspect cases by passive surveillance and initiatives that increase farmer education and awareness should be encouraged.
机译：本论文是对口蹄疫（FMD）在非地方性流行地区检测的性质的调查。研究了1992--2003年间在非流行地区发生的24种口蹄疫流行病。病毒入侵检测延迟的原因包括：（1）基于临床体征的误诊； （2）农民故意隐瞒疾病； （3）非常微妙/不明显的临床体征； （4）假阴性实验室检查。这些流行病的规模存在差异。 24个中的21个包含少于150个爆发，而3个涉及2000多个爆发。感染的动物通过动物活动网络中的枢纽（例如大型动物市场）扩散似乎是造成大规模流行病严重程度的关键原因。本文的其余部分集中于2001年英国大流行。在这种流行病期间，病例的识别几乎完全基于临床体征。临床诊断的敏感性，特异性和阴性预测值分别为94.7％，99.6％和99.9％。阳性预测值较低（76.3％），反映疾病的患病率较低。 Logistic回归用于研究物种，位置，检测方法和时间等因素与以下因素的关系：（1）诊断过程的结果以及（2）病例发现的时间。通过主动监视（跟踪，巡逻，先发制人的剔除），被动监视（由农民或私人兽医发起的调查）或血清学监视（无先前的临床体征）确定病例。大多数病例是通过被动监测确定的；这些检测比任何其他形式的监视发现的病例要早，并且比主动监视发现的病例更准确。主动监测发现了较难诊断的疾病，其中临床诊断更为困难。这些发现表明，FMD监视系统的主要目标应该是确保在通过集线器传播感染动物之前进行检测。应鼓励通过被动监视和增强农民教育和意识的举措来报告可疑案件。

著录项

  • 作者

    McLaws, Melissa.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Guelph (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 University of Guelph (Canada).;
  • 学科 Biology Veterinary Science.; Agriculture Animal Pathology.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2005
  • 页码 199 p.
  • 总页数 199
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 动物学;动物医学（兽医学）;
  • 关键词

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