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The myth and mystery of Vietnam's economic and labor demand growth.

机译：越南经济和劳动力需求增长的神话与奥秘。

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摘要

During the past decade, Vietnam has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world, but employment growth has been much slower. The large gap between GDP and employment growth implies real labor productivity growth, so greater per capita income. However, this enlarging gap, together with emerging unemployment and underemployment problems, also indicates limited benefits to employment from output expansion, an issue of concern to Vietnamese policymakers.;This dissertation research addresses the relationship between GDP growth and employment growth. The central question is why labor demand in Vietnam grows so much more slowly than GDP. Three fundamental causes proposed to explain slow employment growth are: 1) structural transformation; 2) labor-saving technological progress; and 3) institutional biases due to minimum wage and state investment policies.;A decomposition of labor demand growth shows that structural transformation and state investment bias can at most explain 40% of the difference between GDP and employment growth, while the remaining 60% is due to biased technological change and minimum wage bias. Further analysis breaks apart these effects due to changing sectoral output structures and declining labor-output ratios, respectively.;Productivity growth prevailed in Vietnam over the past decade, but we need to allow for biased technological change to find it. Biased technological progress is more important than all other factors in affecting labor demand growth. For the entire economy, the Leontief production function best fits the data, and estimates suggest a 5% increase in labor productivity and a 1% increase in capital productivity per year during 2000-2009. The traditional agricultural sector also experienced 3% annual growth of labor productivity accelerating the structural transformation process.;State investment bias has slowed labor demand growth by 0.51% per year. Privatization is beneficial to labor demand growth as a result of higher labor intensity in non-state firms relative to state owned enterprises, and robust growth of the domestic private sector.;Minimum wage bias is not an important contributing factor, due to low elasticities of factor substitution and weak links between minimum and market wages. Tighter regulation of the minimum wage policy will only strongly affect labor demand in the formal agricultural and manufacturing sectors.;The problem of stagnant employment is shared in other Asian countries. Labor demand growth decomposition for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam for 1986-2008 shows that biased technological progress was responsible for more than 70% of slow employment growth, while structural transformation can only explain up to 30% of the gap between GDP and employment growth. Capital accumulation has been the dominant factor driving Asian economic growth at the early stages of the development, but as development proceeds, technological progress, especially the labor saving type, eventually plays a more important role.
机译：在过去的十年中，越南一直是世界上增长最快的经济体之一，但就业增长却慢得多。 GDP与就业增长之间的巨大差距意味着实际劳动生产率的增长，因此人均收入更高。然而，这种差距的扩大，再加上新出现的失业和就业不足问题，也表明越南的政策制定者担心产量增加会给就业带来有限的收益。本论文研究的是GDP增长与就业增长之间的关系。核心问题是，为什么越南的劳动力需求增长比GDP增长慢得多。提出解释就业增长缓慢的三个根本原因是：1）结构转型； 2）节省劳力的技术进步； 3）最低工资和国家投资政策引起的制度性偏见。劳动力需求增长的分解表明，结构转型和国家投资偏见最多可以解释40％的GDP与就业增长之间的差异，而其余60％​​为由于技术变革的偏见和最低工资的偏见。进一步的分析打破了分别由于部门产出结构变化和劳动产出比率下降而产生的这些影响。过去十年来越南的生产率增长普遍存在，但我们需要允许有偏见的技术变革来找到它。在影响劳动力需求增长方面，技术进步偏重于所有其他因素。对于整个经济体，Leontief生产函数最适合该数据，据估计，在2000-2009年期间，劳动生产率每年增加5％，资本生产率增加1％。传统农业部门的劳动生产率也以每年3％的速度增长，从而加速了结构转型过程。国家投资偏向使劳动力需求的增长每年减慢了0.51％。由于非国有企业相对于国有企业的劳动强度较高，以及国内私营部门的强劲增长，私有化有利于劳动力需求的增长。最低工资偏差不是重要的促成因素，因为低弹性要素替代以及最低工资与市场工资之间的薄弱环节。严格控制最低工资政策只会严重影响正规农业和制造业的劳动力需求。其他亚洲国家也面临着停滞就业的问题。 1986-2008年中国，香港，印度尼西亚，日本，韩国，菲律宾，新加坡，泰国和越南的劳动力需求增长分解表明，有偏见的技术进步是造成超过70％的缓慢就业增长的原因，而结构转型最多只能解释GDP与就业增长之间差距的30％。在发展初期，资本积累一直是驱动亚洲经济增长的主要因素，但是随着发展的进行，技术进步，尤其是劳动力节省型最终将发挥更重要的作用。

著录项

  • 作者

    Wu, Ce.;

  • 作者单位

    Purdue University.;

  • 授予单位 Purdue University.;
  • 学科 Economics.;Labor economics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2012
  • 页码 231 p.
  • 总页数 231
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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