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Essays on South Africa: Exchange Rates, Bilateral Trade and Inflation.

机译：南非随笔：汇率，双边贸易和通货膨胀。

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摘要

South Africa shows how natural resources can be harnessed to build a successful economy. This success gives rise to peculiar macroeconomic issues that warrant analysis. Chapter one of this dissertation investigates the effects of exchange rate volatility on South Africa's export of metals, using monthly data for the period 1980:01 to 2011:07. The study uses squared residuals from the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process to generate a measure of exchange rate volatility, which is then tested in a model of South Africa's metal exports. Utilizing conventional cointergration techniques, the study estimates both the short-run and long-run impacts of exchange-rate volatility (and other macro-variables) on South Africa's export volumes of 11 major metals. Results suggest that exchange rate volatility increases export demand for South Africa's base metals both in the short-run and in the long-run.;Chapter two proceeds with an examination of relationships between South Africa's bilateral trade volumes with 42 of its major trading partners. Annual data for the period 1970 to 2010 is used in the context of a gravity equation. The select variables represent importer/exporter's real income, population, export prices, unemployment, real effective exchange rate, exchange rate volatility, and a set of dummy variables representing involvement in a Preferential Trade Area (PTA) and a dummy variable signifying a change in South Africa's international trade pattern. Results show that real foreign sector has a significant impact on South Africa's bilateral trade. Exchange rate volatility yields mixed results for import demand and depresses trade for exports. PTAs are found to be building blocks to trade, while income inequality within a PTA results to trade diversion. Finally, inclusion of the gravity equation's intangible attributes such as language, colonial ties, and culture is justified.;Lastly, the causes of rising demand pull inflation in South Africa are examined with an eye on the international price of gold given the importance of gold mining in the country. Effects of the money supply, exchange rate, foreign income, and an index of political stability are included in the model. Results show that money supply, exchange rates, and the price of gold and world income to be the major determining factors of inflation levels. The evolving monetary regime and political stability are also found to positively influence inflation levels.
机译：南非展示了如何利用自然资源来建立成功的经济。这一成功引发了需要分析的特殊宏观经济问题。本文第一章利用1980：01至2011：07期间的每月数据，研究了汇率波动对南非金属出口的影响。该研究使用广义自回归条件异方差（GARCH）过程的平方残差来生成汇率波动的度量，然后在南非金属出口模型中对其进行检验。该研究利用传统的协整技术，估计了汇率波动（以及其他宏观变量）对南非11种主要金属的出口量的短期和长期影响。结果表明，汇率波动无论短期还是长期都增加了对南非基本金属的出口需求。第二章着重研究了南非与42个主要贸易伙伴之间的双边贸易量之间的关系。在重力方程中使用了1970年至2010年的年度数据。选择变量代表进口商/出口商的实际收入，人口，出口价格，失业率，实际有效汇率，汇率波动率，以及一组虚拟变量，它们代表参与特惠贸易区（PTA），并且虚拟变量表示进口或出口的变化。南非的国际贸易格局。结果表明，实际的外国部门对南非的双边贸易产生了重大影响。汇率波动对进口需求产生不同的结果，并压低了出口贸易。人们发现，PTA是贸易的基石，而PTA内的收入不平等会导致贸易转移。最后，将重力方程的无形属性（例如语言，殖民地关系和文化）包括在内是有道理的；最后，鉴于黄金的重要性，着眼于国际金价，考察了南非需求增长拉动通货膨胀的原因。在该国采矿。该模型包括货币供应，汇率，外国收入和政治稳定指数的影响。结果表明，货币供应量，汇率，黄金价格和世界收入是通货膨胀水平的主要决定因素。还发现不断发展的货币制度和政治稳定对通货膨胀水平产生了积极影响。

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  • 作者

    Kinyua, Peter Kariuki.;

  • 作者单位

    Auburn University.;

  • 授予单位 Auburn University.;
  • 学科 Statistics.;South African Studies.;Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2012
  • 页码 163 p.
  • 总页数 163
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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