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The effect of graduated driver licensing on teen driver crash involvement.

机译：分级驾驶执照对青少年驾驶员碰撞事故的影响。

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摘要

Purpose: The purpose of this dissertation was to answer the following questions:;1. What is the effect of each component of Graduated Driver Licensing (learner license duration, required hours of supervised driving, passenger restrictions and nighttime driving restrictions) on 16- and 17-year-old drivers' fatal crash rates? 2. What is the effect of GDL on 18-year-old drivers' crash rates, and what mechanisms might be responsible for any increase in rates?;Method: To answer question 1, states that introduced a single GDL component, independent of other components were identified. The effect of the single GDL component on 16- and 17-year-old drivers fatal crashes was estimated using single-state time series analysis, adjusting for adult crashes and gas prices. To answer question 2, single-state time series analysis was used to estimate the effect of GDL on 16-, 17-, and 18-year-old drivers' crashes in Florida and Michigan, where GDL applies to 15- to 17-year-old drivers, and in Maryland, where GDL applies to novice drivers of all ages, adjusting for adult crashes and gas prices.;Results: A learner license period that guaranteed six-months delay in licensure to drive independently was associated with a significant decline in 16- and 17-year-old drivers' fatal crash rates. In one state, novice drivers' fatal crash rates increased 34.5% following the introduction of 30 hours of required supervised driving. A passenger restriction for the first 12 months of intermediate licensure was followed by a 46% reduction in fatal passenger crash rates that approached significance (p= .06). Nighttime driving restrictions, implemented alongside supervised driving hours, did not reduce fatal nighttime crashes. The introduction of GDL was followed by a significant increase in possible-injury/property-damage-only crashes among 18-year-old drivers in Michigan and by a significant decrease in possible-injury/property-damage-only crashes among 18-year-old drivers' rates in Maryland.;Conclusion: Some GDL components confer a safety benefit. However, the entire program is responsible for a greater reduction in crashes than the additive contribution of individual components. GDL programs applied exclusively to 16- and 17-year-old drivers may result in some teens not being licensed until age 18. Requiring all novice drivers to complete a GDL program is recommended.
机译：目的：本论文的目的是回答以下问题：1。分级驾驶执照的各个组成部分（学习者执照期限，所需的监督驾驶时间，乘客限制和夜间驾驶限制）对16岁和17岁驾驶员的致命撞车率有何影响？ 2. GDL对18岁驾驶员的撞车率有什么影响，什么机制可能导致车速的增加？方法：要回答问题1，说明引入了一个GDL组件，与其他组件无关确定了组件。使用单状态时间序列分析估算了单个GDL组件对16岁和17岁驾驶员致命碰撞的影响，并针对成人碰撞和汽油价格进行了调整。为了回答问题2，使用了单状态时间序列分析来评估GDL对佛罗里达州和密歇根州16岁，17岁和18岁驾驶员碰撞的影响，其中GDL适用于15至17岁年龄较大的驾驶员，在马里兰州，GDL适用于所有年龄的新手驾驶员，并根据成人车祸和汽油价格进行了调整；结果：学习者执照期限可确保独立驾驶执照的延迟六个月与显着下降有关16岁和17岁驾驶员的致命撞车率。在一种状态下，引入了30小时要求监督驾驶后，新手驾驶员的致命撞车率提高了34.5％。在获得中间执照的前12个月中，乘客受到限制，其致命的乘客坠毁率降低了46％，接近显着水平（p = .06）。夜间驾驶限制与监督驾驶时间一起实施，并没有减少致命的夜间交通事故。引入GDL之后，密歇根州18岁驾驶员的仅可能伤害/财产损坏的撞车事故显着增加，而18岁以下的仅可能伤害/财产损坏的撞车事故显着减少。马里兰州的老司机费率；结论：某些GDL组件可带来安全利益。但是，与单个组件的累加贡献相比，整个程序所导致的崩溃减少更多。仅针对16和17岁驾驶员的GDL程序可能会导致某些青少年直到18岁才获得许可。建议建议所有新手驾驶员完成GDL程序。

著录项

  • 作者

    Ehsani, Johnathon P.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Michigan.;

  • 授予单位 University of Michigan.;
  • 学科 Health Sciences Public Health.;Transportation.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2012
  • 页码 119 p.
  • 总页数 119
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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