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Impact of Climate Change on Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Air Quality.

机译：气候变化对细颗粒物（PM2.5）空气质量的影响。

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摘要

This dissertation investigates the impact of 2000-2050 climate change on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality. We first applied a multiple linear regression model to study the correlations of total PM 2.5 and its components with meteorological variables using the past decadal PM2.5 observations over the contiguous US. We find that daily variation in meteorology can explain up to 50% of PM2.5 variability. Temperature is positively correlated with sulfate and organic carbon (OC) almost everywhere. The correlation of nitrate with temperature is negative in the Southeast but positive in California and the Great Plains. Relative humidity (RH) is positively correlated with sulfate and nitrate, but negatively with OC. Precipitation is strongly negatively correlated with all PM 2.5 components.;We then compared the observed correlations of PM2.5 with meteorological variables with results from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. The results indicate that most of the correlations of PM2.5 with temperature and RH do not arise from direct dependence but from covariation with synoptic transport. We applied principal component analysis and regression to identify the dominant meteorological modes controlling PM2.5 variability, and showed that 20-40% of the observed PM2.5 daily variability can be explained by a single dominant meteorological mode: cold frontal passages in the eastern US and maritime inflow in the West.;From 1999-2010 observations we further showed that interannual variability of annual mean PM2.5 in most of the US is strongly correlated with the synoptic period &Tgr; of the dominant meteorological mode as diagnosed from a spectral-autoregressive analysis. We then used the observed local PM 2.5-to-period sensitivity to project PM2.5 changes from the 2000-2050 changes in &Tgr; simulated by fifteen IPCC AR4 GCMs following the SRES A1B scenario. We project a likely increase of ~0.1 µg m -3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the eastern US arising from less frequent frontal ventilation, and a likely decrease of ~0.3 µg m-3 in the northwestern US due to more frequent maritime inflows. These circulation-driven changes are relatively small, representing only a minor climate penalty or benefit for PM2.5 regulatory purpose.
机译：本文研究了2000-2050年气候变化对细颗粒物（PM 2.5 ）空气质量的影响。我们首先应用多元线性回归模型，利用过去连续十年在美国连续十年的PM 2.5 观测资料研究总PM 2.5 及其成分与气象变量的相关性。我们发现，气象学的每日变化可以解释高达50％的PM 2.5 变化。几乎在任何地方，温度都与硫酸盐和有机碳（OC）正相关。在东南部，硝酸盐与温度的相关性为负，但在加利福尼亚州和大平原中为正。相对湿度（RH）与硫酸盐和硝酸盐呈正相关，而与OC呈负相关。降水与PM 2.5 的所有成分均呈极显着负相关。然后，我们将观测到的PM 2.5 与气象变量的相关性与GEOS-Chem化学迁移模型的结果进行了比较。结果表明，PM 2.5 与温度和相对湿度的大多数相关性不是直接依赖，而是与天气输送的协变。我们应用主成分分析和回归来确定控制PM 2.5 变异的主导气象模式，并表明20-40％的观测到的PM 2.5 每日变异可解释为单一的主要气象模式：美国东部的冷锋通道和西方的海流。；从1999年至2010年的观察结果，我们进一步表明，美国大部分地区的年平均PM 2.5 的年际变化是与天气周期强烈相关光谱自回归分析所诊断的主要气象模式的特征。然后，我们使用观测到的局部PM 2.5 到周期的敏感性来预测2000年至2050年＆Tgr;中PM 2.5 的变化。在SRES A1B情景下由15个IPCC AR4 GCM模拟。我们预计，由于较少的额叶通风，美国东部的年平均PM 2.5 可能会增加〜0.1 µg m -3 ，并且可能会减少〜0.3 µg美国西北部的m -3 由于海事流入更为频繁。这些由循环驱动的变化相对较小，仅代表较小的气候惩罚或对PM 2.5 监管目的的好处。

著录项

  • 作者

    Tai, Pui Kuen Amos.;

  • 作者单位

    Harvard University.;

  • 授予单位 Harvard University.;
  • 学科 Atmospheric Chemistry.;Atmospheric Sciences.;Engineering Environmental.;Climate Change.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2012
  • 页码 120 p.
  • 总页数 120
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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