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The Rapid Rise of Middle-Class Vehicle Ownership in Mumbai.

机译：孟买中产阶级汽车拥有量的快速增长。

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摘要

In India, demand for urban mobility is increasing rapidly because of growth in urban populations, establishment of multiple employment sub-centers, suburbanization of households, better education, higher workforce participation rates, and rising incomes. An increase in discretionary spending is leading to higher household transportation budgets. Middle-income households in particular are investing in private vehicles such as motorized two-wheelers (TWs) and cars. At the same time, policies to reduce vehicle ownership through regulations and user costs remain underdeveloped and weakly enforced. This further increases households' willingness to use vehicles, especially for non-discretionary work trips. Higher private vehicle use is affecting other quality of life issues such as time spent commuting, accident rates, noise pollution, and particulate and greenhouse gas emissions.;In part, this higher vehicle ownership and use is driven by land use dynamics in Indian cities, where growth within city municipal boundaries is constrained by regulations limiting floor-area ratios. As a result, much of the new growth has taken place in urban peripheries where land is cheap and building costs are low. In these peripheral areas, existing small and medium towns have become anchors for agglomeration, transforming into bedroom communities for emergent middle-class groups. Urban peripheral areas are usually undersupplied with transportation infrastructure such as roads or bus transit.;This dissertation unpacks the question of why the middle-class in India is driven to owning and using TWs and cars by asking the following: (1) How does work location influence travel by public and private modes? (2) What factors encourage vehicle ownership in middle-class households? (3) What factors drive up vehicle use in middle-class households? The research was conducted using a travel survey dataset from the Greater Mumbai Region (GMR) that represents 1.5% of the households there. The GMR is among the most populated megacity regions in the world, housing over 22 million people. Its growth illustrates the transformation from a monocentric to a polycentric city which is seen in many rapidly growing Indian cities.;In seeking to develop an understanding of how work location affected travel, this research identified employment sub-centers using work destination data. Of all middle-class home-based work trips, 67 percent ended in a sub-center, while 33 percent did not. Mean travel times and mean travel distances by train, TW and intermediate public transportation (IPT) modes such as rickshaws were longer for work destinations in sub-centers than for work destinations in the urban periphery, but trips made by buses were shorter in sub-centers. Car users traveled longer and farther compared to TW users for home-based work trips in the GMR. Trains were the speediest mode of travel in the GMR, but traveling by a TW or car was speedier than bus or IPT travel—confirming that having a private vehicle has advantages.;This research used a multinomial logit model to analyze households' choice of having no vehicles, only TWs, or at least one car. Results indicated that household utility from both TWs and cars increased with household characteristics such as per capita annual income, living in an independent house or an apartment, number of rooms in the housing unit, housing location farther from a railway station, the presence of children under 5 years, and larger household size. Moreover, vehicle utility for households increased with the primary wage earner's characteristics including college education, employment, being married, making more trips across all modes, traveling during the morning peak, and working in the urban periphery. Household utility from both TWs and cars decreased when the primary wage earner had longer work trips and higher employment density at the work location.;Regression models for vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) and person kilometers traveled (PKT) for cars and TWs showed that vehicle use increased with number of employed persons in the household, and if the primary wage earner worked in the urban core. Vehicle use decreased if density of housing and jobs went up at either the home or work location. TW use went down with per capita annual household income.;Overall findings indicate that demand for private vehicles is rising due to the following factors: better education, employment, higher incomes, suburbanization, peripheral employment node formation, and lack of public travel options. However, higher density decreases vehicle use. Without changes in policies encouraging higher well-managed densities, jobs-housing balance, and supply of adequate transit and IPT travel options, vehicle ownership and use will likely continue to grow rapidly in India.
机译：在印度，由于城市人口的增长，多个就业子中心的建立，家庭的郊区化，更好的教育，更高的劳动力参与率以及收入的增加，对城市交通的需求正在迅速增长。可自由支配支出的增加导致更高的家庭运输预算。特别是中等收入家庭正在投资私家车，例如机动两轮车（TWs）和汽车。同时，通过法规和用户成本减少车辆拥有量的政策仍然不完善，执行力也很弱。这进一步提高了家庭使用车辆的意愿，尤其是在非随意性工作旅行中。私家车使用量的增加正在影响其他生活质量问题，例如通勤时间，事故率，噪音污染以及微粒和温室气体的排放。部分原因是，这种更高的车辆拥有量和使用量是受到印度城市土地使用动态的驱动，在城市市政范围内的增长受到限制建筑面积比的法规的限制。结果，许多新的增长发生在土地便宜且建筑成本低的城市周边地区。在这些周边地区，现有的中小城镇已成为集聚的锚点，已转变为新兴的中产阶级群体的卧房社区。通常，城市外围地区的交通基础设施（如道路或公交车）供不应求；本论文通过询问以下问题来解开为什么印度中产阶级被迫拥有和使用TW和汽车的问题：（1）工作方式位置会影响公共和私人交通方式吗？ （2）哪些因素会鼓励中产阶级家庭拥有汽车？ （3）是什么因素推动中产阶级家庭使用汽车？该研究是使用来自大孟买地区（GMR）的旅行调查数据集进行的，该数据集代表该地区1.5％的家庭。 GMR是世界上人口稠密的大城市地区之一，居住着超过2200万人。它的增长说明了从单中心城市到多中心城市的转变，这种转变在许多快速发展的印度城市中都可见。为了寻求对工作地点如何影响出行的理解，本研究使用工作目的地数据确定了就业子中心。在所有中产阶级家庭工作旅行中，有67％的人是在子中心结束的，而33％的人中没有。在副中心的工作地点，火车，TW和人力车等中间公共交通（IPT）模式的平均旅行时间和平均旅行距离要比城市周边的工作地点更长，而在副中心，公共汽车旅行的路程要短一些。中心。与TW用户相比，在GMR中，与TW用户相比，汽车用户旅行的时间更长，更远。火车是GMR中最快的出行方式，但是乘TW或汽车出行比公交或IPT出行更快-证实拥有私家车是有优势的。该研究使用多项Logit模型分析了家庭选择没有车辆，只有TW或至少一辆车。结果表明，TW和汽车的家庭实用性随着家庭特征的增加而增加，例如人均年收入，居住在独立房屋或公寓中，住房单元中的房间数量，远离火车站的住房位置，有儿童的存在5岁以下，家庭规模更大。此外，随着主要工资收入者的特征（包括大学学历，就业，结婚，在所有方式下进行更多旅行，在早晨高峰期间旅行以及在城市外围工作），用于家庭的汽车实用性有所增加。当主要工资来源的工作时间更长，工作地点的就业密度更高时，来自TWs和汽车的家庭效用均下降。;汽车和TWs的车辆行驶公里数（VKT）和人员行驶公里数（PKT）的回归模型表明使用率随着家庭中就业人数的增加而增加，并且主要工资来源在城市核心地区工作。如果房屋或工作地点的住房和工作密度增加，则车辆使用量将减少。 TW的使用随着家庭人均年收入而下降。总体研究结果表明，由于以下因素，对私家车的需求正在增长：更好的教育，就业，更高的收入，郊区化，外围就业节点形成以及缺乏公共旅行选择。但是，较高的密度会减少车辆的使用。如果不采取政策鼓励更高密度的良好管理，平衡工作岗位，提供充足的过境和IPT出行选择的政策，印度的车辆拥有量和使用量可能会继续快速增长。

著录项

  • 作者

    Shirgaokar, Manish.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Berkeley.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Berkeley.;
  • 学科 Transportation.;Urban and Regional Planning.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2012
  • 页码 154 p.
  • 总页数 154
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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