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首页> 外文学位 >Risks to food availability and access from climate policies: An integrated assessment of regional food availability and access with alternative climate mitigation strategies to 2050.
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Risks to food availability and access from climate policies: An integrated assessment of regional food availability and access with alternative climate mitigation strategies to 2050.

机译：气候政策对粮食供应和获取的风险：对区域粮食供应和获取的综合评估，以及到2050年的替代性气候缓解战略。

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摘要

Although mitigating GHG emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and access due to land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Prior studies have examined the co-impacts on food availability and global producer prices caused by alternative climate policies. More recent studies have looked at the reduction in total caloric intake driven by both changing income and changing food prices under one specific climate policy. However, due to inelastic calorie demand, consumers' well-being are likely further reduced by increased food expenditures. Built upon existing literature, my dissertation explores how alternative climate policy designs might adversely affect both caloric intake and staple food budget share to 2050, by using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and a post-estimated metric of food availability and access (FAA).;My dissertation first develop a set of new metrics and methods to explore new perspectives of food availability and access under new conditions. The FAA metric consists of two components, the fraction of GDP per capita spent on five categories of staple food and total caloric intake relative to a reference level. By testing the metric against alternate expectations of the future, it shows consistent results with previous studies that economic growth dominates the improvement of FAA.;As we increase our ambition to achieve stringent climate targets, two policy conditions tend to have large impacts on FAA driven by competing land use and increasing food prices. Strict conservation policies leave the competition between bioenergy and agriculture production on existing commercial land, while pricing terrestrial carbon encourages large-scale afforestation. To avoid unintended outcomes to food availability and access for the poor, pricing land emissions in frontier forests has the advantage of selecting more productive land for agricultural activities compared to the full conservation approach, but the land carbon price should not be linked to the price of energy system emissions. These results are highly relevant to effective policy-making to reduce land use change emissions, such as the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).
机译：尽管减少温室气体排放对于减少总体的气候变化对作物产量和农业生产的不利影响是必要的，但由于土地利用竞争和缓解的经济负担，某些缓解措施可能对粮食的供应和获取产生意想不到的后果。先前的研究已经研究了替代气候政策对粮食供应和全球生产者价格的共同影响。最近的研究研究了在一种特定的气候政策下，由于收入的变化和食品价格的变化而导致的总热量摄入的减少。但是，由于卡路里需求缺乏弹性，食品支出增加可能会进一步降低消费者的福祉。在现有文献的基础上，我的论文探索了替代性气候政策设计如何通过使用全球变化评估模型（GCAM）和后估计的粮食供应与获取指标（FAA）来对2050年的热量摄入和主粮预算份额产生不利影响。 ）.;我的论文首先提出了一套新的指标和方法，以探索在新条件下粮食供应和获取的新观点。 FAA指标包括两个组成部分，即在五类主食上花费的人均GDP比例和相对于参考水平的总热量摄入量。通过针对未来的替代预期测试该指标，它显示出与以前的研究一致的结果，即经济增长主导着FAA的改善。随着我们对实现严格气候目标的雄心壮志，两种政策条件往往会对FAA驱动力产生重大影响通过竞争土地使用和提高食品价格。严格的保护政策使现有商业土地上的生物能源和农业生产之间存在竞争，而对陆地碳定价则鼓励大规模造林。为避免给穷人的粮食供应和获取带来意外的结果，与完全保护方法相比，对边远森林的土地排放进行定价的优势是选择了更多的生产性土地用于农业活动，但土地碳价不应与碳价挂钩。能源系统排放。这些结果与减少土地用途变化排放的有效政策制定高度相关，例如减少森林砍伐和森林退化造成的排放量（REDD）。

著录项

  • 作者

    Cui, Yiyun.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Maryland, College Park.;

  • 授予单位 University of Maryland, College Park.;
  • 学科 Public policy.;Agriculture.;Climate change.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2016
  • 页码 161 p.
  • 总页数 161
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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