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Climate change and water resources management: Adaptations for flood control and water supply.

机译:气候变化和水资源管理:适应防洪和供水。

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摘要

This dissertation focuses on flood control and water supply adaptations to climate change. For water supply, potential climate warming impacts on surface runoff, groundwater inflows and reservoir evaporation for distributed locations in the inter-tied water system of California are analyzed. Increasing winter flows and decreasing spring snowmelt runoff are identified in a statewide. The potential magnitude of water supply effects of climate warming can be very significant. Integrated water resources management is a promising way for water supply adaptation to climate change. A multiple stage stochastic optimization model is formulated to integrate water demand, water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and ground waters and water transfers in an irrigated district and an urban area. The results provide optimal long-term and short-term crop mix, optimal permanent and temporary urban conservation measures, and conjunctive use and water transfer decisions. It is illustrated that conjunctive use and water transfers can complement each other and significantly improve water management flexibility. For flood control adaptations, optimal tradeoff of levee setback for height and flood levee re-design rules are first analyzed under static climatic and economic conditions. Under dynamic conditions, optimal levee height over time is examined with optimal control. A stochastic dynamic programming model is developed for long-term floodplain planning under climate change and urbanization, with levee height and setback as decision variables. The results demonstrate climate change and urbanization can have major combined effects on flood damage and optimal long-term flood management. The case study shows there is likely to be economic value to expanding lower American River setbacks and levee heights over long periods of time, and making present-day zoning decisions to preserve such options.
机译:本文的重点是防洪和供水适应气候变化。对于供水,分析了加利福尼亚交错水系统中分布式位置的潜在气候变暖对地表径流,地下水流入和水库蒸发的影响。在全州范围内,冬季流量增加,春季融雪径流量减少。气候变暖对供水的潜在影响可能非常重要。水资源综合管理是使供水适应气候变化的一种有前途的方式。建立了一个多阶段随机优化模型,以整合需水量,节水量,地表水和地下水的联合使用以及灌溉区和市区的调水量。结果提供了最佳的长期和短期作物组合,最佳的永久性和临时性城市保护措施,以及联合使用和调水决策。结果表明,联合使用和调水可以相互补充,并显着提高水管理的灵活性。为了进行防洪调整,首先要在静态气候和经济条件下分析堤防倒退高度和防洪堤重新设计规则的最佳折衷。在动态条件下,将通过最佳控制来检查随时间变化的最佳堤坝高度。针对气候变化和城市化条件下的漫滩长期规划,建立了随机动态规划模型,以堤坝高度和倒退作为决策变量。结果表明,气候变化和城市化可能对洪水破坏和最佳的长期洪水管理产生重要的综合影响。案例研究表明,长期延长美利坚合众国河下游的退缩幅度和堤防高度,并做出当今的分区决定以保留此类选择可能具有经济价值。

著录项

  • 作者

    Zhu, Tingju.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Davis.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Davis.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.; Engineering Environmental.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2004
  • 页码 128 p.
  • 总页数 128
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 建筑科学;环境污染及其防治;
  • 关键词

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