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Impact of Bt cotton adoption on farmers' wellbeing in Pakistan.

机译：种植Bt棉对巴基斯坦农民的健康的影响。

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Among four largest cotton producing countries, Pakistan is the only one that had not commercially adopted Bt cotton by 2010. However, the cultivation of Bt cotton, although unapproved and unregulated, increased rapidly after 2005. This dissertation focused on two research questions: what is the economic impact of existing unapproved Bt varieties on farmers' wellbeing; and what might be the potential impact of the adoption of commercialized Bt cotton varieties.;The results of treatment effect models indicate a positive impact of Bt cotton on the wellbeing of cotton farmers in Pakistan, even after controlling for selection bias. However, the extent of impact varies by agro-climatic conditions and size of farm. Bt cotton appeared most effective in the hot and humid areas where pest pressure from bollworms is high. The per-acre yield gains for large farmers were higher than for small farmers. In the simulation models, the potential benefits of acquiring and commercializing the latest Bt technology were found to be much higher than the expected cost. Contrary to popular belief, the share of benefits to seed companies and technology innovators was found to be small. These results support the commercial release of the latest Bt cotton varieties in a regularized seed market. In light of the long-term impacts of Bt cotton, this study proposes persistent monitoring of pest pressure and seed performance in different agro-climatic zones by conducting regular surveys over time. To make Bt technology beneficial for small farmers, this study recommends a well functioning institutional setup that can cater to the needs of small farmers in terms of information flow, provision of credit and timely availability of inputs.;The analysis was based on the data collected through structured questionnaires in January-February 2009 of 208 growers in 16 villages of two cotton-growing districts: Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas. The treatment effect model was used to examine the economic impact of Bt cotton on farmers' wellbeing. The welfare implications of Bt cotton adoption were evaluated by employing stochastic simulation model under the current and four hypothetical adoption scenarios. The component of risk was incorporated by replacing single-point values with probability distributions for selected parameters.
机译：在四个最大的棉花生产国中，巴基斯坦是到2010年唯一没有在商业上采用Bt棉的国家。然而，Bt棉的种植尽管未经批准和不受管制，但在2005年之后迅速增长。本文主要针对两个研究问题：现有未经批准的Bt品种对农民福祉的经济影响；处理效果模型的结果表明，即使在控制选择偏见之后，Bt棉对巴基斯坦棉农的健康也具有积极影响。但是，影响程度因农业气候条件和农场规模而异。在棉铃虫有害生物压力较高的炎热潮湿地区，Bt棉似乎最有效。大农场主的每英亩收益要高于小农场主。在仿真模型中，发现获得最新的Bt技术并将其商业化的潜在收益远高于预期成本。与普遍看法相反，发现对种子公司和技术创新者的收益份额很小。这些结果支持了在常规种子市场上最新Bt棉花品种的商业发布。考虑到Bt棉花的长期影响，本研究建议通过定期进行定期调查，持续监测不同农业气候区的害虫压力和种子表现。为了使Bt技术对小农户有利，本研究建议一种运作良好的机构设置，该机构可以在信息流，信贷提供和及时提供投入方面满足小农户的需求。;分析基于所收集的数据通过2009年1月至2月的结构化问卷，对两个棉花种植​​区（Bahawalpur和Mirpur Khas）的16个村庄的208个种植者进行了调查。处理效果模型用于检验Bt棉花对农民健康的经济影响。在当前和四个假设的采用情景下，通过采用随机模拟模型评估了种植Bt棉的福利意义。通过用选定参数的概率分布替换单点值来合并风险成分。

著录项

  • 作者

    Nazli, Hina.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Guelph (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 University of Guelph (Canada).;
  • 学科 Economics Agricultural.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2011
  • 页码 287 p.
  • 总页数 287
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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