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Assessing Future Water Resources: The Influence of Climate Change, Population Growth and Land Use Change in the Lower Cape Fear Basin, North Carolina.

机译：评估未来的水资源：北卡罗来纳州下开普菲尔盆地的气候变化，人口增长和土地利用变化的影响。

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摘要

With the possibility of future fresh water shortages increasing, a methodology for predicting future water availability conditions is needed. This research outlines a methodology to estimate these conditions based on the influence of climate change, land use change, and population growth. The method is based on the USGS Thornthwaite monthly water balance model and can incorporate estimates of climate change and land use change parameters to assess future water resources based on predicted monthly fluxes of the water balance. The methodology is demonstrated by analyzing watersheds in the lower Cape Fear River basin located in southeast North Carolina.;The southern United States is a rapidly growing region. Trends present in the population data are used to produce future estimates of population for the basin. Precipitation and temperature estimates based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions and current climatology are inputs to the model. Projected increases in impervious surface cover due to population growth and urbanization are incorporated through the model runoff factor. Water stress indicators are used to categorize the region as water rich, water stressed, or water scarce. Scenarios incorporating regional predictions of climate change indicate a decrease in summer soil moisture minima and increases in summer water deficits. The impact of impervious surface cover enhances these deficits. Ensemble runs indicate a shift toward water stress in the lower Cape Fear River basin in the future, due to a warming climate as well as increased demand. While climate change has a significant impact on water resources in the region, population growth has the most substantial impact as it not only impacts demand, but climate and land use as well.
机译：随着未来淡水短缺的可能性增加，需要一种预测未来水可利用条件的方法。这项研究概述了一种基于气候变化，土地利用变化和人口增长的影响估算这些条件的方法。该方法基于USGS的Thornthwaite月度水平衡模型，可以结合气候变化和土地利用变化参数的估计值，根据预测的月度水平衡通量评估未来的水资源。通过分析位于北卡罗来纳州东南部的Cape Fear河下游流域的分水岭，证明了该方法。美国南部是一个快速增长的地区。人口数据中显示的趋势用于生成该盆地的未来人口估计。基于政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）预测和当前气候学的降水和温度估算是该模型的输入。通过模型径流因子将预计的由于人口增长和城市化导致的不透水地表覆盖增加。水分胁迫指标用于将区域分类为富水，缺水或缺水。结合区域气候变化预测的情景表明，夏季土壤最低含水量减少，夏季缺水量增加。不可渗透的表面覆盖物的影响加剧了这些缺陷。整体运行表明，由于气候变暖以及需求增加，未来在开普菲尔河下游流域将朝着缺水的方向发展。气候变化虽然对该地区的水资源产生了重大影响，但人口增长的影响最大，因为它不仅影响需求，而且影响气候和土地使用。

著录项

  • 作者

    Griffin, Michael T.;

  • 作者单位

    East Carolina University.;

  • 授予单位 East Carolina University.;
  • 学科 Physical Geography.;Water Resource Management.;Climate Change.
  • 学位 M.A.
  • 年度 2011
  • 页码 104 p.
  • 总页数 104
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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