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Essays on demographic issues in China.

机译：关于中国人口问题的论文。

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摘要

Chapter 1: Shy is the sex ratio unbalanced in china? The roles of the one-child policy, underdeveloped social insurance, and parental expectations . The sex ratio imbalance in China has reached such an alarming level that, by 2020, men of marriageable age are estimated to outnumber women by 24 million. Using a calibrated life-cycle model, this paper examines the rising sex ratio through three linked but different perspectives: one-child policy, social insurance program, and parental expectation. In a dynamic fertility choice framework, a couple's decision on sex selection is motivated by better returns from investing in a son than in a daughter. I also consider the largely overlooked effect of expected sex imbalance on current fertility choices.;The benchmark calibration demonstrates three results. First, moving to a one-and-half-child policy (second allowed if the first is a girl) would dramatically decrease the sex ratio at birth from 125 to 106. Second, if parents are adaptive and take the "can-not-marry" risk into consideration, then the sex ratio under the one-child policy will drop from 125 to 110, while the change in population growth is negligible. Third, when social insurance coverage is universal, the sex ratio only changes by a small amount if parents do not modify their expectation on children's transfer. I also investigate the equilibrium sex ratio when couples are fully rational and forward-looking. If more couples behave in such a manner, the sex ratio would fall; this suggests that publicity and education could help alleviate the sex imbalance problem in China. In a similar spirit, I consider the issue of endogenizing children's transfer to parents. In an infinite-horizon dynastic model, the equilibrium level of transfer is positively related to the attention parents place on grandparents' welfare. Finally, I show that if social insurance could change the social attitude on expected child transfer, then it has the potential to significantly reduce the sex ratio.;Chapter 2: Risky child investment, fertility and social insurance in China. This paper tries to explain the decline in total fertility rate (TFR) in China by investigating the quantitative effect of social insurance on peoples' fertility choice in an environment where investment in children is risky. The price and income effects of social insurance are heterogeneous depending on peoples' position in the income distribution: low-income people tend to raise more children due to the reinforcing income and price effects, whereas for rich families the income effect dominates the price effect so that their fertility declines in the presence of the social insurance program. Our results based on Chinese economy do not support the hypothesis that increasing social insurance tax rate has a negative impact on fertility rate, as argued in Boldrin, Nardi, and Jones (2005). Through decomposing calibration results under hypothetical policy scenarios and simulating TFRs for various parameter values, we show that liquidity constraints created by a public pension program plays a significant role in reducing fertility rate. Factors related to the rate of return on child investment, such as a slowing economic growth, a rise in the cost of childbearing, and potential social attitude changes such as expectations of lower transfers, also contribute to the long-term declining trend in fertility observed in the data.
机译：第一章：害羞的中国性别比例不平衡吗？独生子女政策的作用，不完善的社会保险和父母的期望。中国的性别比例失衡达到了惊人的程度，到2020年，已婚年龄的男性估计将比女性多2400万。本文使用经过校准的生命周期模型，通过三个相互联系但又不同的观点检验了性别比例的上升：一个孩子的政策，社会保险计划和父母的期望。在动态的生育选择框架中，夫妻选择性别的决定是受投资于儿子而不是女儿获得更好的回报所驱动的。我还考虑了预期的性别失衡对当前生育能力选择的很大程度上被忽略的影响。基准校准显示了三个结果。首先，采用半孩子政策（如果第一个是女孩，则允许第二个）将使出生时的性别比从125急剧降低到106。第二，如果父母具有适应能力并且采取“不能-考虑到“结婚”的风险，那么一胎化政策下的性别比例将从125降至110，而人口增长的变化可以忽略不计。第三，在社会保险覆盖面普遍的情况下，如果父母不改变其对子女移交的期望，性别比例只会发生很小的变化。我还研究了夫妻完全理性且具有前瞻性时的平衡性别比。如果更多的夫妻以这种方式行事，性别比例将会下降；这表明宣传和教育可以帮助缓解中国的性别失衡问题。本着类似的精神，我考虑了将儿童转移给父母的内生性问题。在无限水平的王朝模型中，转移的均衡水平与父母对祖父母福利的关注程度成正比。最后，我证明，如果社会保险能够改变人们对预期子女转移的社会态度，那么它就有可能显着降低性别比例。第二章：中国儿童投资，生育和社会保险的风险。本文试图通过研究在儿童投资存在风险的环境中社会保险对人们的生育选择的定量影响来解释中国总生育率的下降。社会保险的价格和收入效应是不同的，具体取决于人们在收入分配中的地位：低收入人群由于收入和价格效应的增强而倾向于抚养更多的孩子，而对于富裕家庭来说，收入效应主导价格效应，因此在参加社会保险计划的情况下，他们的生育能力下降。我们的基于中国经济的结果并不支持这样的假说，如Boldrin，Nardi和Jones（2005）所述，提高社会保险税率会对生育率产生负面影响。通过在假设的政策情景下分解校准结果并模拟各种参数值的TFR，我们表明，公共养老金计划创建的流动性约束在降低生育率方面起着重要作用。与儿童投资回报率有关的因素，例如经济增长放缓，生育成本上升以及潜在的社会态度变化，例如对较低的转移支付的期望，也导致观察到的生育率长期下降趋势在数据中。

著录项

  • 作者

    Li, Xue.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Maryland, College Park.;

  • 授予单位 University of Maryland, College Park.;
  • 学科 Economics General.;Economics Theory.;Sociology Demography.;Economics Labor.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2011
  • 页码 141 p.
  • 总页数 141
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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