• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文学位 >The Effects of Changing Land Use and Climate on the Hydrology and Carbon Budget of Lake Simcoe Watershed, Ontario, Canada.
【24h】

The Effects of Changing Land Use and Climate on the Hydrology and Carbon Budget of Lake Simcoe Watershed, Ontario, Canada.

机译：土地利用和气候变化对加拿大安大略湖西姆科湖流域水文和碳收支的影响。

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The Lake Simcoe watershed (LSW) has experienced significant population growth and is under pressure from development. This has led to land use changes in the watershed in addition to the global climate change that is impacting every region of the world. In this thesis, remote sensing analysis, statistics and process-based modelling approaches were used to better understand dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and runoff dynamics in the changing landscape of LSW. The process-based approach involved the use of the HBV (Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning) rainfall runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model for Carbon (INCA-C). Statistical downscaling of the Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) was used to predict the impact of climate change under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A1B and A2 scenarios.;There was a significant land use change in LSW between 1994 and 2009 with a positive monotonic trend in runoff ratio across tributaries. Large increase in runoff ratio without corresponding increase in precipitation suggested that runoff drains more quickly over the land surfaces; an indication of increasing urban-induced impervious surfaces. However, there was a significant increase in air temperature (MK = 0.315; p<0.01) and precipitation (MK = 0.290; p<0.01) outside the fifteen year (1994-2009) window. This translated to an increase in air temperature of ∼0.7°C and precipitation by ∼6.3% at the end of the forty year period (1960-2000). This suggested that historical meteorological conditions in the LSW have evolved to a warmer-wetter condition in the recent time and this might serve as a pointer of future conditions if the current trend persists. Both A1B and A2 scenarios predicted an increase in air temperature by a maximum of 1.4°C by 2050 and up to 3.5°C by 2100 relative to the baseline period (1960-2000). HBV predicted a largest variability in the spring and winter season's runoff regimes (2020-2050) under both A1B and A2 scenarios.;A 5% increase in DOC concentration and a 6% increase in flux were observed between period 1 (1994-1997) and period 2 (2007-2009). The observed increases were driven by spring (20%) and summer (26%). INCA-C predicted a positive monotonic increase in long-term DOC concentrations (2020-2100) in surface waters draining into Lake Simcoe under both scenarios with the largest seasonal variations in DOC concentrations predicted to occur in the summer months. This indicates the sensitivity of surface water quantity-quality to rising air temperature with the possibility of an increase in CO2 emissions from the rivers in the future. Understanding the processes that mediate DOC mobilization into Lake Simcoe from its catchment may lead to improvements in watershed management and a better understanding of other carbon dependent biogeochemical processes such as mercury.;Keywords: CGCM, Climate change, Dissolved organic carbon, Environmental modelling, HBV model, Hydrology, INCA-C, Lake Simcoe, Land use change, Remote sensing, SDSM, Statistical downscaling.
机译：锡姆科湖流域（LSW）的人口增长迅猛，并受到发展的压力。除影响全球每个地区的全球气候变化外，这还导致流域土地利用的变化。在本文中，遥感分析，统计和基于过程的建模方法被用来更好地理解LSW不断变化的景观中的溶解有机碳（DOC）和径流动力学。基于过程的方法涉及使用HBV（Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning）降雨径流模型和碳综合汇水模型（INCA-C）。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的A1B和A2情景，使用了加拿大总体循环模型（CGCM3）的统计缩减来预测气候变化的影响; 1994年至2009年，LSW的土地使用发生了重大变化，各支流径流量比呈正单调趋势。径流比大幅度增加而降水量没有相应增加，表明径流更快地流向了陆地表面。指示城市诱导的不透水表面增加。然而，在十五年（1994-2009年）时间窗外，气温（MK = 0.315； p <0.01）和降水（MK = 0.290； p <0.01）显着增加。在这40年期间（1960-2000年）结束时，空气温度升高了约0.7°C，降水增加了约6.3％。这表明LSW的历史气象条件在最近已演变为更温暖的条件，如果当前趋势持续下去，这可能是未来条件的指针。 A1B和A2情景均预测，到2050年，相对于基准时期（1960-2000年），气温最高将升高1.4°C，到2100年将升高至3.5°C。 HBV预测在A1B和A2情景下春季和冬季的径流模式（2020-2050）的最大变异性。在第一阶段（1994-1997）之间，DOC浓度增加了5％，通量增加了6％和期间2（2007-2009）。观察到的增加是由春季（20％）和夏季（26％）推动的。 INCA-C预测，在两种情况下，流入Simcoe湖的地表水的长期DOC浓度（2020-2100）都将出现单调正增长，而DOC浓度的最大季节性变化预计将发生在夏季。这表明地表水水质对气温升高的敏感性，以及将来河流中二氧化碳排放量可能增加的可能性。了解介导DOC从其流域转移到Simcoe湖的过程可能会改善流域管理并更好地理解其他依赖碳的生物地球化学过程，例如汞。关键词：CGCM，气候变化，溶解性有机碳，环境模型，HBV模型，水文，INCA-C，西姆科湖，土地利用变化，遥感，SDSM，统计缩减。

著录项

  • 作者

    Oni, Stephen Kayode.;

  • 作者单位

    Trent University (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 Trent University (Canada).;
  • 学科 Biogeochemistry.;Hydrology.;Remote Sensing.;Biology Limnology.;Climate Change.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2011
  • 页码 285 p.
  • 总页数 285
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号