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Discovering Patterns on Financial Data Streams.

机译:在财务数据流上发现模式。

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摘要

With the increasing amount of data in financial market, there are two types of data streams attracting a lot of research and studies, time series index stream and related news stream. In this thesis, we focus on discovering patterns from these data streams and try to answer the following challenging questions, (I) given two co-evolving time series indices, what is the co-movement dependency between them. (II) given a set of evolving time series, could we detect some leaders from them whose rise or fall impacts the behavior of many other time series? (III) could we integrate the news stream information into stock price prediction? (IV) could we integrate the news stream information into stock risk analysis? and (V) could we detect what are those events that trigger time series index movement. For each of the question, we design algorithms and address three technique issues (I) how to detect promising patterns from the noisy financial data; (II) how to update the old patterns when new data arrives in high frequency; (III) how to use the pattern to support the financial applications.;We start from investigating the co-movement relationship of multiple time series. We propose techniques to study two aspects of this problem. First, we propose a co-movement model for constructing financial portfolio by analyzing and mining the co-movement patterns among two time series. Second, we presents an efficient streaming algorithm to discover leaders from multiple time series stream. Both of the algorithms are evaluated using real time series indices data and the result proves that co-movement patterns and detected leaders are promising and can support various applications including portfolio management, high frequency trading and risk management.;Then, we consider the patterns between news stream and time series indices stream. We first transform the news stream into a set of bursty feature (keywords) time series streams and propose three technique to study their relationship to time series index. First, we explore a Non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) to predict the stock market process which takes both stock prices and news articles into consideration. Second, we propose a risk analytical model to predict the volatility of price indices by integrating news information. Finally, we devise an algorithm to detect the priming event from text and a time series index. The evaluation on real world dataset suggests the significant correlation exists between news stream and time series stream and our pattern discover algorithm can detect promising patterns from this relationship to support real world applications effectively.
机译:随着金融市场中数据量的增加,有两种类型的数据流吸引了很多的研究,时间序列索引流和相关的新闻流。在本文中,我们着重于从这些数据流中发现模式,并尝试回答以下具有挑战性的问题:(I)给定两个共同发展的时间序列索引,它们之间的共同运动依赖性是什么。 (II)给定一组不断变化的时间序列,我们是否可以从中发现一些领导者,其上升或下降会影响其他许多时间序列的行为? (III)我们可以将新闻流信息整合到股价预测中吗? (IV)我们可以将新闻流信息整合到股票风险分析中吗? (V)我们是否可以检测到那些触发时间序列索引移动的事件?对于每个问题,我们设计算法并解决三个技术问题(I)如何从嘈杂的财务数据中检测出有前途的模式; (二)当新数据频繁到达时如何更新旧模式; (III)如何使用该模式来支持财务应用程序。我们从研究多个时间序列的协同运动关系开始。我们提出技术来研究此问题的两个方面。首先,我们通过分析和挖掘两个时间序列之间的联动模式,提出了一种联动模型来构建金融投资组合。其次,我们提出了一种有效的流算法,可以从多个时间序列流中发现领导者。两种算法都使用实时序列指数数据进行了评估,结果证明共同移动模式和检测到的领导者很有希望,并且可以支持投资组合管理,高频交易和风险管理等各种应用。新闻流和时间序列索引流。我们首先将新闻流转换为一组突发性特征(关键字)时间序列流,然后提出三种技术来研究它们与时间序列索引的关系。首先,我们探索一种非均质的隐马尔可夫模型(NHMM)来预测将股票价格和新闻都考虑在内的股票市场过程。其次,我们提出了一种风险分析模型,通过整合新闻信息来预测价格指数的波动性。最后,我们设计了一种算法来从文本和时间序列索引中检测启动事件。对现实世界数据集的评估表明,新闻流和时间序列流之间存在显着的相关性,并且我们的模式发现算法可以从这种关系中检测出有希望的模式,以有效地支持现实世界的应用程序。

著录项

  • 作者

    Wu, Di.;

  • 作者单位

    The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong).;

  • 授予单位 The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong).;
  • 学科 Economics Finance.;Computer Science.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2010
  • 页码 131 p.
  • 总页数 131
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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