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Financial liberalization, institutional factors and economic development.

机译:金融自由化,体制因素和经济发展。

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This study probes the linkages between the institutional framework of an economy and the outcome of financial liberalization. It argues that institutions and institutional quality are crucial to avoiding the crises often precipitated by financial liberalization. This issue is examined in detail at two levels, first by building a theoretical model that extends existing theory regarding the role of institutions in financial liberalization. This is followed by an empirical analysis of the experiences of five developing economies, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico and India that liberalized their financial sector in the 1980s and 1990s.; The theoretical model captures the process of financial liberalization by explaining how given initial institutional conditions, policy changes determine the adjustment path of the economy and the final outcome. It reveals how a policy response that does not take into account weak institutions leads to negative outcomes. A model for a closed economy and an extension for an open economy that captures the impact of international capital flows are presented. The institutional setup under two alternate economic scenarios is considered. One in which the production sector is dominated by firms operating in ‘priority sectors’ and having preferential access to credit. Another in which these conditions do not apply to firms operating in the economy.; The empirical model examines how critical institutions are to financial liberalization outcomes, financial sector growth and the ability to withstand crises. Four indices of institutional quality (based on ICRG, BERI, WCR, and IQI) have been constructed and tested for their significance in financial sector development, and economic growth. The regression results indicate that all the four indices measuring institutions are significantly correlated to the financial sector development and economic growth. While financial liberalization helped the sample countries to achieve faster economic growth through financial deepening, in the absence of strong institutions it resulted in increased volatility. The results under logistic regression indicate that where institutions remained weak, the growth resulting from liberalization was unsustainable in the long run and increased the financial fragility of countries. Overall we found that countries benefited from financial liberalization, and long-term sustainability of reforms is correlated to developing strong institutions.
机译:这项研究探讨了经济体制框架和金融自由化结果之间的联系。它认为,制度和制度质量对于避免金融自由化经常引发的危机至关重要。从两个层面详细研究了这个问题,首先是建立一个理论模型,该模型扩展了有关机构在金融自由化中的作用的现有理论。接下来是对五个发展中经济体(韩国,泰国,印度尼西亚,墨西哥和印度)在1980年代和1990年代开放其金融部门的经验的经验分析。该理论模型通过解释给定的初始制度条件,政策变化如何确定经济的调整路径和最终结果,来捕捉金融自由化的过程。它揭示了不考虑薄弱制度的政策反应如何导致负面结果。提出了捕获国际资本流动影响的封闭经济模型和开放经济扩展模型。考虑了两种替代经济情景下的制度设置。生产部门由在“优先部门”中经营并享有信贷优先权的公司主导。这些条件不适用于在经济中经营的公司的另一种情况;该经验模型检验了关键机构对金融自由化结果,金融部门增长和抵御危机的能力如何。已经建立并测试了四个机构质量指标(基于ICRG,BERI,WCR和IQI),并测试了它们在金融部门发展和经济增长中的重要性。回归结果表明,所有四个衡量指标的机构都与金融部门的发展和经济增长密切相关。尽管金融自由化通过金融深化帮助样本国家实现了更快的经济增长,但由于缺乏强有力的制度,这导致了更大的波动性。逻辑回归的结果表明,在体制仍然薄弱的地方,自由化带来的增长从长远来看是不可持续的,并增加了各国的金融脆弱性。总的来说,我们发现国家从金融自由化中受益,改革的长期可持续性与发展强大的制度有关。

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