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Causal analysis of highway crashes: A systematic analysis approach with subjective and statistical methods.

机译：高速公路事故的因果分析：一种具有主观和统计方法的系统分析方法。

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摘要

Due to high fatality rates, traffic safety issues on rural two-lane highways have drawn the attention of the nation. Improving traffic safety in rural areas becomes an important matter to government agencies. Since rural two-lane highways cover the majority of the highway system, the decision of safety improvements is influential and needs extensive evaluation.; This study focused on three categories: crash database, contributing factors, and countermeasure development. The research identified deficiencies of the current crash database, identified the crash contributing factors on rural two-lane highways in Georgia, and proposed prioritized countermeasures to either prevent crashes or reduce severity.; This study investigated the causal factors of fatal crashes utilizing a sample crash database created by a Georgia Tech research team. The causal factor analysis procedure examined two major phases: crash occurrence and crash severity, by means of two analysis methods: subjective and statistical methods.; For the subjective analysis method, a safety expert in the research team reviewed and investigated each crash. For each case, this safety expert developed causal chain relationships for crash occurrence and crash severity. For the statistical analysis method, the author applied Loglinear models to examine the likelihood of involvement in fatal crashes and multinomial Logit models to characterize statistical relationships between contributing factors and crash severity.; The analysis results for both methods were similar. This study found that human related factors were the initial contributing factor in over 90-percent of crashes. Essentially, the fatal crashes were attributed to driving under the influence (DUI), driver errors, horizontal curve, speeding, narrow lane width, and the absence of paved shoulder . Crash severity was associated with safety restraint usage, age, roadside obstacles, roadside slope, and overturn.; Finally, this study developed a list of prospective engineering-based countermeasures and prioritized these countermeasures based on the significance of their remedying factors and the frequency of their application. Research findings suggested that government agencies should allocate budget to improve horizontal curves, pave shoulders, widen travel lane, and eliminate roadside hazards.
机译：由于高死亡率，农村两车道高速公路上的交通安全问题引起了全国的关注。改善农村地区的交通安全成为政府机构的重要任务。由于农村的两车道高速公路覆盖了整个高速公路系统，因此安全改进的决定具有影响力，需要进行广泛的评估。这项研究集中在三类：崩溃数据库，影响因素和对策开发。该研究确定了当前事故数据库的缺陷，确定了佐治亚州农村两车道高速公路上的事故成因，并提出了优先的对策，以防止事故或降低严重性。这项研究使用了佐治亚理工学院研究团队创建的样本碰撞数据库，研究了致命碰撞的原因。因果分析程序通过两个分析方法检查了两个主要阶段：碰撞发生和碰撞严重性：主观和统计方法。对于主观分析方法，研究团队中的一位安全专家对每次撞车进行了审查和调查。对于每种情况，这位安全专家都针对事故发生和事故严重性开发了因果关系。对于统计分析方法，作者应用Loglinear模型检查致命碰撞的可能性，并应用多项式Lo​​git模型来描述影响因素和碰撞严重性之间的统计关系。两种方法的分析结果相似。这项研究发现，与人相关的因素是导致90％以上的撞车事故的最初因素。本质上，致命的撞车归因于（ DUI ）的影响下的驾驶，驾驶员错误，水平曲线，超速，狭窄车道宽度以及没有铺装路面肩膀。碰撞严重程度与使用安全带，年龄，路边障碍物，路边坡和倾覆有关。最后，本研究列出了基于工程的预期对策，并根据其对策的重要性和应用频率对这些对策进行了优先排序。研究结果表明，政府机构应分配预算以改善水平曲线，铺路石，拓宽行车道并消除路边危害。

著录项

  • 作者

    Wu, Chi-Hung Evelyn.;

  • 作者单位

    Georgia Institute of Technology.;

  • 授予单位 Georgia Institute of Technology.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2001
  • 页码 402 p.
  • 总页数 402
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 建筑科学;
  • 关键词

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