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Current account imbalances and adjustment policies: A case study of Saudi Arabia.

机译：经常账户失衡和调整政策：以沙特阿拉伯为例。

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摘要

Saudi Arabia has experienced wide variations in export proceeds leading, along with other factors such as government balance and money stock, to sharp fluctuations in its current account balance for the period of 1969–1997 (between 58.7% of the GDP in 1978 and –23.4% of the GDP in 1991). The sharp fluctuations in the current account balance have made it difficult for Saudi planners and policy makers to adopt appropriate economic policies that will promote economic growth.; In this study, two approaches have been used to investigate the current account imbalances in Saudi Arabia, in order to assist Saudi planners and policy makers in making appropriate decisions. To determine if the current account imbalances are excessive under the neoclassical assumptions, the intertemporal approach was carried out using the present value of the current account method. The estimation results showed that the model captures the statistically important aspects of the current account behavior for the period of 1969–1997.; According to the intertemporal theorists, there is no need for policies to deal with the deficit or the surplus in the Saudi Arabian current account since they are the result of maximization behavior. But since Saudi Arabia's economy has special factors (a single commodity export economy and a high degree of openness of the economy) that may affect the risks associated with running large external deficits, widening external deficits may pose significant risks in the event of unfavorable shocks. For these reasons, the government needs to be on the alert to deal with deterioration in the current account position.; The conventional approach was carried out using the vector autoregression (VAR) model to determine the factors that cause the current account variability under the assumptions of the neo-Keynesian theory. The results revealed that the government balance, the money stock and the terms of trade have the greatest impact on the current account. These factors can be managed to deal with the current account imbalances in the short term, but in the long term, a diversification of exports and reforming the labor market are the most important policies that need to be implemented.
机译：沙特阿拉伯的出口收益变化很大，加上其他因素（例如政府结余和货币储备），导致其1969-1997年经常账户余额出现剧烈波动（1978年占GDP的58.7％和–23.4之间） 1991年占GDP的百分比）。经常账户余额的急剧波动使沙特计划者和决策者难以采取适当的经济政策来促进经济增长。在这项研究中，已使用两种方法来调查沙特阿拉伯的经常账户失衡，以协助沙特计划者和决策者做出适当的决定。为了确定在新古典假设下经常账户失衡是否过大，使用了经常账户方法的现值进行了跨期方法。估计结果表明，该模型捕获了1969-1997年期间经常账户行为的统计重要方面。根据跨时代的理论家的观点，由于沙特阿拉伯经常账户的赤字或盈余是最大化行为的结果，因此无需制定政策。但是，由于沙特阿拉伯的经济具有特殊因素（单一商品出口经济和高度开放的经济），可能会影响与巨额外部赤字有关的风险，因此，如果出现不利的冲击，外部赤字的扩大可能构成重大风险。由于这些原因，政府需要保持警惕，以应对经常账户状况的恶化。传统的方法是使用矢量自回归（VAR）模型进行的，以确定在新凯恩斯理论的假设下导致经常账户变动的因素。结果表明，政府余额，货币存量和贸易条件对经常账户的影响最大。这些因素可以在短期内处理经常账户失衡，但从长期来看，出口的多样化和劳动力市场的改革是最需要执行的政策。

著录项

  • 作者

    Al-Nassar, Ahmed Abdulmohsen.;

  • 作者单位

    Colorado State University.;

  • 授予单位 Colorado State University.;
  • 学科 Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2000
  • 页码 144 p.
  • 总页数 144
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 财政、金融;
  • 关键词

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