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Multi-dimensional Drought Risk Assessment based on Socio-economic Vulnerabilities and Hydro-Climatological Factors

机译：基于社会经济脆弱性和水文气候因素的多维干旱风险评估

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摘要

Drought is among the costliest natural hazards developing slowly and affecting large areas, which imposes severe consequences on society and economy. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to exacerbate drought in various regions of the globe, making its associated socioeconomic impacts more severe. Such impacts are of higher concern in Africa, which is mainly characterized by arid climate and lacking infrastructure as well as social development. Furthermore, the continent is expected to experience vast population growth, which will make it more vulnerable to the adverse effects of drought. This study provides the first comprehensive multi-dimensional assessment of drought risk across the African continent as a function of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. A multi-model and multi-scenario approach is employed to quantify drought hazard using the most recent ensemble of regional climate models and a multi-scalar drought index. Moreover, a rigorous framework is proposed and applied to assess drought vulnerability based on various sectors of economy, energy and infrastructure, health, land use, society, and water resources. Drought risk is then projected for different population scenarios and the changes of drought risk and the role of each component are investigated. In addition, the impacts of climate change on heat-stress mortality risk is assessed across the Middle East and North Africa. The results indicate vast increase for the projected drought risk with varied spatiotemporal patterns. Population growth and climate change will significantly escalate drought risk, especially in distant future. Therefore, climate change mitigation and adaptation planning as well as social development strategies should be carried out immediately in order to reduce the projected adverse risks on human life and society.
机译：干旱是发展缓慢并影响大面积地区的代价最高的自然灾害之一，对社会和经济造成了严重后果。人为的气候变化预计将加剧全球各地的干旱，使其相关的社会经济影响更加严重。这种影响在非洲引起了更大的关注，非洲的主要特征是干旱的气候，缺乏基础设施以及社会发展。此外，预计非洲大陆将经历大量人口增长，这将使其更容易受到干旱的不利影响。这项研究首次对非洲大陆干旱风险作为危害，脆弱性和暴露的函数进行了全面的多维评估。使用最新的区域气候模型集合和多尺度干旱指数，采用多模型，多情景方法来量化干旱风险。此外，根据经济，能源和基础设施，卫生，土地利用，社会和水资源等各个部门，提出了严格的框架并将其应用于评估干旱脆弱性。然后针对不同的人口情景预测干旱风险，并研究干旱风险的变化以及每个组成部分的作用。此外，评估了中东和北非的气候变化对热应激死亡风险的影响。结果表明，预计干旱风险随时空变化而大大增加。人口增长和气候变化将大大加剧干旱风险，尤其是在不久的将来。因此，应立即执行减缓和适应气候变化的计划以及社会发展战略，以减少预计对人类生活和社会造成的不利风险。

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  • 作者

    Ahmadalipour, Ali.;

  • 作者单位

    Portland State University.;

  • 授予单位 Portland State University.;
  • 学科 Civil engineering.;Hydrologic sciences.;Climate change.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2017
  • 页码 148 p.
  • 总页数 148
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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