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A dynamic analysis of the global timber market and carbon flux of forest under global warming: An integrated modeling approach.

机译：全球变暖下全球木材市场和森林碳通量的动态分析：一种综合建模方法。

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摘要

As global warming migrates ecosystems toward the poles, the result has been a change in the distribution of ecosystem types and the productivity of ecosystem as well. Similar to other natural resources, forests are also potentially affected as ecosystems move toward the poles. Consequently, human beings are forced to adapt, and global warming will generate an impact on the global timber market through changes in timber harvests, regeneration inputs, stumpage prices, etc. In addition, the dynamic process of forest change in response to economic activities of human beings will accelerate or dampen the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. In this context, we propose an integrated modeling approach to identify the effect of global warming on the global timber market, and examine the feedback effect of the global timber market on global warming.;To perform the primary research objective, we estimated dynamic ecological change based on (1) the simulation results of BIOME 3 using Hamburg and (2) the linearity assumptions about change in climate and ecosystem. With the estimates of dynamic ecological change, we modified the Timber Supply Model 2000 (TSM 2000) to reflect the dynamic ecological change caused by climate change. After simulating the base scenario and the climate change scenario of TSM 2000, we identified that global warming has a positive effect on the global timber market.;For the secondary research objective, we extended the modeling framework by incorporating the Terrestrial Carbon Model (TCM) designed to investigate net carbon release into the atmosphere. Simulating both the base TCM and the modified TCM which reflects climate change, we identified that the global timber market has a dampening (negative feedback) effect on global warming through net carbon sequestering. For sensitivity analyses, we performed these simulation procedures under three different timber demand growth scenarios.
机译：随着全球变暖将生态系统向两极迁移，其结果是生态系统类型的分布和生态系统生产力也发生了变化。与其他自然资源类似，随着生态系统向两极移动，森林也可能受到影响。因此，人类被迫适应气候变化，全球变暖将通过木材采伐量，再生投入，立木价格等变化对全球木材市场产生影响。此外，随着森林经济活动的变化森林动态变化。人类会加速或抑制大气中的碳含量。在此背景下，我们提出了一种综合建模方法，以识别全球变暖对全球木材市场的影响，并研究全球木材市场对全球变暖的反馈影响。为了实现主要研究目标，我们估算了动态生态变化基于（1）使用汉堡的BIOME 3的仿真结果和（2）关于气候和生态系统变化的线性假设。根据动态生态变化的估计，我们修改了2000年木材供应模型（TSM 2000）以反映气候变化引起的动态生态变化。在模拟了TSM 2000的基本情景和气候变化情景之后，我们确定了全球变暖对全球木材市场有积极影响。;对于次要研究目标，我们通过合并陆地碳模型（TCM）扩展了建模框架。旨在调查向大气中释放的碳净量。通过模拟基本TCM和反映气候变化的改良TCM，我们确定了全球木材市场通过净碳固存对全球变暖具有抑制作用（负反馈）。为了进行敏感性分析，我们在三种不同的木材需求增长方案下执行了这些模拟程序。

著录项

  • 作者

    Lee, Dug Man.;

  • 作者单位

    Utah State University.;

  • 授予单位 Utah State University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.;Economics Theory.;Environmental Sciences.;Economics Agricultural.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2000
  • 页码 161 p.
  • 总页数 161
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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