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From Boom to Bust: The Effects of the Great Recession on Neighborhoods and Schools.

机译:从繁荣到萧条:大萧条对社区和学校的影响。

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摘要

The cyclical recurrence of economic crises suggests that they are an inevitable and recurrent phenomenon in American society. The most recent economic downturn that struck in late 2007 and lasted through 2009, referred to as "The Great Recession", is now generally acknowledged to be the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression in the 1930s. A lot has been written about the dramatic and nearly simultaneous shocks to the labor, stock, and housing markets that undoubtedly affected millions of American households. While this work has been crucial for expanding our understanding of the consequences of economic shocks, we know little of how the economic shock of The Great Recession impacted children in schools. Understanding the ways in which schools and communities were impacted is crucial to the development of policy responses seeking to stabilize vulnerable neighborhoods and remediating the individual and community-level effects in the event of future economic crises.;Using data from a large urban high school district as a case study, this dissertation analysis considers the effect of the most substantial economic shock in decades on a variety of educational and community outcomes. The study seeks to expand on earlier work by applying a quasi-experimental research design to examine the impact of an exogenous economic downturn on a school district located in San Bernardino County California, an area widely considered at the epicenter of The Great Recession. The findings of this study promise to facilitate our understanding of how recessions impact educational outcomes and the role policy can play to mitigate the consequences.;Data analyzed for the study comes from three sources: (1) Administrative Chaffey Joint Union High School District Records; (2) American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Percent Public Use Micro data; (3) Zillow monthly real-estate data. Maps constructed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology helped depict pre-recession and post-recession changes across San Bernardino County. Both Multi-level and signal level logistic models were developed to estimate the effects of The Great Recession on student subgroups between the periods 2004-2013, controlling for a variety of background variables. Community level findings indicate sharp increases in child poverty, unemployment, and foreclosures caused by The Great Recession. At the student level, results indicate statistically large increases in mobility, particularly for middle class blacks. Perhaps counter-intuitively, steep declines in graduation rates in 2008 are followed by a sharp increase beginning in 2009- largely driven by increases from the most disadvantaged groups. The results suggest that the recession created a counter-cyclical demand for education, but also raises important questions about the effects of district responses to the needs of the most vulnerable students at the height of economic downturns.;Given the results from this dissertation, educators and policy makers may be well served by considering economic cycles when determining the allocation of classroom resources, classroom planning, and cohort dynamics. This is particularly important in the beginning of economic crises, which might adversely impact the most vulnerable students through a variety of pathways. Large scale economic shocks are going to continue to be common feature of the global economic landscape, and these shocks could result in poverty traps, generating effects that harm not just present, but also succeeding generations. In an era of frequent and rapid economic change, it is crucial to understand the associations between large-scale economic change and educational opportunity.
机译:经济危机的周期性复发表明,它们是美国社会中不可避免且经常发生的现象。最近一次发生在2007年底并持续到2009年的经济衰退被称为“大萧条”,现在人们普遍认为这是自1930年代大萧条以来最严重的经济危机。关于劳动力,股票和住房市场的戏剧性和几乎同时发生的冲击,已经有很多报道,这些冲击无疑影响了数百万的美国家庭。尽管这项工作对于扩大我们对经济冲击后果的理解至关重要,但我们对大萧条的经济冲击如何影响学校的孩子们知之甚少。了解学校和社区受到影响的方式对于制定政策应对措施至关重要,这些政策旨在稳定脆弱的社区并在未来发生经济危机时补救个人和社区的影响。;使用来自大型城市中学区的数据作为案例研究,本论文分析考虑了数十年来最严重的经济冲击对各种教育和社区成果的影响。这项研究试图通过应用准实验研究设计来研究外源性经济衰退对位于加利福尼亚州圣贝纳迪诺县(该地区被广泛认为是大萧条的震中)的一个学区的影响,从而扩大早期工作。这项研究的结果有望促进我们了解衰退如何影响教育成果以及政策可以起到的作用,以减轻后果。这项研究分析的数据来自三个方面:(1)行政卡菲联合联合中学区记录; (2)美国社区调查(ACS)的5%的公共用途微观数据; (3)Zillow每月房地产数据。使用地理信息系统(GIS)技术构建的地图有助于描绘整个圣贝纳迪诺县的衰退前和衰退后的变化。开发了多级和信号级逻辑模型,以估计“大萧条”对2004-2013年之间学生亚组的影响,并控制了各种背景变量。社区一级的调查结果表明,大萧条导致儿童贫困,失业和丧失抵押品赎回权的急剧增加。从学生的角度来看,结果表明,行动上统计学上的大幅增加,特别是对于中产阶级黑人而言。可能与直觉相反,2008年的毕业率急剧下降,然后是2009年开始的急剧增长,这主要是由最弱势群体的增长所致。结果表明,经济衰退造成了对教育的反周期需求,但同时也提出了重要的问题,即在经济低迷时期,地区对最弱势学生需求的反应的影响。;鉴于此,教育工作者在确定教室资源的分配,教室计划和队列动态时,考虑经济周期,政策制定者可能会得到很好的服务。在经济危机开始之初,这一点尤其重要,因为它可能通过各种途径对最脆弱的学生产生不利影响。大规模的经济冲击将继续成为全球经济格局的共同特征,而这些冲击可能导致贫困陷阱,产生的影响不仅危害现在的人,而且也伤害后代。在一个频繁而迅速的经济变化时代,了解大规模经济变化与教育机会之间的联系至关重要。

著录项

  • 作者

    Mordechay, Kfir.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Los Angeles.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Los Angeles.;
  • 学科 Economics.;Sociology.;American studies.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2016
  • 页码 219 p.
  • 总页数 219
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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