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The theory of financial insurance with an application to earthquakes and catastrophe bonds.

机译:金融保险理论,适用于地震和巨灾债券。

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摘要

This thesis applies the methodology of finance to the study of insurance markets. The key ideas are: (1) representing the underlying fundamental source of uncertainty as a Marked Point Process and (2) allowing security trading to occur much more rapidly than spot trading in real commodities. The goal is the construction of a general equilibrium model with financial markets which is useful for applications, which I illustrate by treating the problem of providing earthquake insurance in California.; The general equilibrium model employed in this thesis is defined a discrete time, as is standard in dynamic macroeconomics. However, the driving stochastic process is defined over continuous time, taking the form of a Marked Point Process, a generalization of a Poisson process. The modeling framework that I propose takes these two different time scales--discrete time for spot trading in commodities, and continuous time for information revelation and security trading--and makes them mutually consistent.; This framework provides competitive dynamic prices for insurance contracts and insurance derivatives, such as catastrophe bonds, as the expected discounted value of their payoffs, and their risk premia are analyzed using standard finance tools. It also permits the analysis of trading behavior, which I use to show that risk-averse agents' optimal trading behavior is to share risk by buying insurance on themselves (thereby eliminating the idiosyncratic component in their endowments) and by trading aggregate securities such as catastrophe bonds and mutual funds to deal with aggregate uncertainty.; I use these theoretical results to study the problem of providing insurance for residential real estate in California, using data for the U.S. economy and for earthquakes to calibrate a simple general equilibrium model. The conclusion drawn from the simulation is that the competitive price of earthquake risk is well below current prices and that catastrophe bonds carry a large excess premium.
机译:本文将金融方法论应用于保险市场研究。关键思想是:(1)将“不确定性”的根本基础表示为“标记点过程”;(2)允许证券交易比真实商品的现货交易更快地发生。目的是构建一个具有金融市场的一般均衡模型,该模型对应用程序很有用,我将通过处理加利福尼亚州提供地震保险的问题来加以说明。本文采用的一般均衡模型是离散时间,这是动态宏观经济学中的标准。但是,驾驶随机过程是在连续时间内定义的,采取的是标记点过程的形式,即泊松过程的一般化。我建议的建模框架采用了这两个不同的时间尺度-商品现货交易的离散时间,以及信息披露和证券交易的连续时间-并使它们相互一致。该框架为保险合同和保险衍生产品(例如巨灾债券)提供了具有竞争力的动态价格,因为它们的收益预期折现值以及其风险溢价都使用标准的金融工具进行了分析。它还允许对交易行为进行分析,我用来证明规避风险的代理人的最佳交易行为是通过为自己购买保险(从而消除其end赋中的特有成分)和交易诸如灾难性的总证券来分担风险。债券和共同基金以应对总体不确定性。我使用这些理论结果来研究为加利福尼亚的住宅房地产提供保险的问题,并使用美国经济数据和地震数据来校准简单的一般均衡模型。从模拟得出的结论是,地震风险的竞争价格远低于当前价格,而巨灾债券具有较大的超额溢价。

著录项

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Los Angeles.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Los Angeles.;
  • 学科 Economics Theory.; Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1997
  • 页码 139 p.
  • 总页数 139
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 经济学;财政、金融;
  • 关键词

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