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Progress towards a development methodology for decision support systems for use in time-critical, highly uncertain, and complex environments.

机译：在时间紧迫，高度不确定和复杂的环境中使用的决策支持系统的开发方法论方面取得了进展。

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摘要

A framework for a design methodology for ecological decision support systems is proposed. Specifically, a methodology is proposed to study and model unfamiliar man-made environments in a manner that supports efforts to create decision support systems. This methodology is demonstrated by the development of a clinical decision support system for neonatal intensive care. The resulting decision support system is shown to significantly improve the diagnostic accuracy of physicians in a simulated intensive care environment. This methodology is applicable to other complex man-made work environments.;Through evolution humans have developed a great ability to work in natural environments that are filled with probabilistic patterns of events. These patterns are what allow us to have meaningful interactions with our environment. However, things are changing people are now finding themselves in artificial man-made environments. These artificial environments are still governed by probabilistic patterns, however, the character of such patterns are not always natural to, and are sometimes hidden from, the people in the environments. Should people evolve new abilities to deal with these new environments? No, what must happen is that these man-made work environments must evolve to take advantage of people's natural ability.;One approach to address this problem is to design decision support systems that match the work environment to the cognitive resources of the people in the environment. The design of these systems is not easy, particularly in the cases were the developer is not an expert in the field. In this case the developer does not understand the probabilistic patterns that are important in the environment. To address these issues a control system theoretic framework is proposed. Appropriate model structures and data collection techniques are discussed. This combination of appropriate model structures and data collection techniques allow for work environments to be modeled in a manner that is useful for the design of decision support systems.;To demonstrate this methodology a clinical decision support system was developed for neonatal intensive care. This system was then empirically evaluated by comparing it to the existing environment. The support system was shown to significantly improve the diagnostic accuracy of physicians. This effect was most consistent with less experienced physicians, every physician in this group performed better with the new support system. Furthermore, the vast majority of the physicians preferred using the new support system.;This dissertation proposes a framework for this modeling methodology and explores several of its components. The ecological decision support systems developed by this framework have the potential to provide significant cost and time benefits in many different fields, for example, clinical decision support systems, executive decision support system, industrial process control. The potential field of applicability is large.
机译：提出了生态决策支持系统设计方法的框架。具体来说，提出了一种方法，以支持创建决策支持系统的方式研究和模拟陌生的人造环境。新生儿重症监护临床决策支持系统的开发证明了这种方法。结果表明，最终的决策支持系统可以在模拟的重症监护环境中显着提高医生的诊断准确性。这种方法论适用于其他复杂的人为工作环境。通过进化，人类已经发展出了在充满事件概率模式的自然环境中工作的强大能力。这些模式使我们能够与环境进行有意义的交互。但是，事情正在发生变化，人们现在正处于人造的人造环境中。这些人工环境仍然受概率模式支配，但是，这种模式的特征并不总是环境中的人们自然而然的，有时对他们而言是隐藏的。人们是否应该发展应对这些新环境的新能力？不，必须发生的是，这些人造的工作环境必须不断发展以利用人们的自然能力。解决此问题的一种方法是设计决策支持系统，使工作环境与人们的认知资源相匹配。环境。这些系统的设计并不容易，特别是在开发人员不是该领域专家的情况下。在这种情况下，开发人员无法理解环境中重要的概率模式。为了解决这些问题，提出了一种控制系统理论框架。讨论了适当的模型结构和数据收集技术。适当的模型结构和数据收集技术的这种结合允许以对决策支持系统的设计有用的方式对工作环境进行建模。为了证明这种方法，开发了用于新生儿重症监护的临床决策支持系统。然后通过将其与现有环境进行比较对该系统进行经验评估。该支持系统显示可以显着提高医生的诊断准确性。这种效果与经验不足的医师最一致，该组中的每个医师在新的支持系统下均表现更好。此外，绝大多数医生更喜欢使用新的支持系统。本论文提出了这种建模方法的框架，并探讨了其一些组成部分。通过该框架开发的生态决策支持系统有潜力在许多不同领域提供显着的成本和时间收益，例如临床决策支持系统，执行决策支持系统，工业过程控制。适用范围很大。

著录项

  • 作者

    Sharp, Thomas D.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Cincinnati.;

  • 授予单位 University of Cincinnati.;
  • 学科 Engineering Electronics and Electrical.;Engineering Industrial.;Psychology Experimental.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1997
  • 页码 215 p.
  • 总页数 215
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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