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Development of fuzzy logic modeling method in probabilistic risk assessments.

机译：概率风险评估中模糊逻辑建模方法的发展。

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摘要

This dissertation provides a more realistic approach to the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) by considering the effects of partial failure with fuzzy logic modeling rather than the traditional PRA binary logic modeling. This is accomplished by using an integrated methodology of thermal-hydraulic analysis and probability-possibility modeling with using the Dynamic Master Logic Diagram (DMLD). This dissertation documents the methodology, the computer codes required for it, partial failure data analysis, and application of the methodology to the most significant sequence from the NUREG-1150 (1) PRA for the Zion Nuclear Power Station, Unit One.; The approach taken utilizes a screening process to determine dominant accident sequences defined by traditional PRAs. The thermal-hydraulic analysis model satisfied by the use of the RELAP5/MOD3 (21) verifies the effects of the partial failure of system functions in the dominant accident sequence. The DMLD modeling measures the "possibility" of certain performance level of the system through the evaluation of dominant combinations of mutually exclusive cut sets of systems with partial failure state components. The application, using the results of partial failure data analysis for pumps and motor operated valves, has demonstrated that partial failures caused by component degration contributes to a high percentage of unavailability of system functions required by sequences. The methodology developed in this dissertation can be applied to current PRAs to provide more realistic results without fundamental changes of the PRA technology.; This dissertation proposes a method using DMLD for component partial failure analysis on the basis of the fuzzy state assumption. DMLD provides an effective tool for presenting and manipulating linguistic knowledge of component failure modes and severity. One example of using DMLD to predict and estimate the performance of a centrifugal pump is presented.
机译：相对于传统的PRA二元逻辑建模，本文通过模糊逻辑建模来考虑部分失效的影响，为概率风险评估提供了一种更为现实的方法。这是通过使用热工水力分析和概率可能性建模的集成方法以及使用动态主逻辑图（DMLD）来完成的。本文记录了该方法论，所需的计算机代码，部分故障数据分析以及该方法论在NUREG-1150（1）锡安核电站一号机组PRA的最重要序列中的应用。采取的方法利用筛选过程来确定由传统PRA定义的主要事故序列。通过使用RELAP5 / MOD3（21）所满足的热工水力分析模型验证了在主要事故序列中系统功能部分失效的影响。 DMLD建模通过评估具有部分故障状态分量的系统的互斥割集的主要组合来评估系统某些性能水平的“可能性”。该应用程序使用了对泵和电动阀的部分故障数据分析的结果，证明了由组件退化引起的部分故障会导致序列所需的系统功能无法使用的比例很高。本文开发的方法可以应用于当前的PRA，以提供更现实的结果，而无需PRA技术的根本改变。本文提出了一种基于模糊状态假设的基于DMLD的零件局部失效分析方法。 DMLD提供了一种有效的工具，用于展示和处理有关组件故障模式和严重性的语言知识。给出了使用DMLD预测和估计离心泵性能的一个示例。

著录项

  • 作者

    Ni, Tao.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Maryland, College Park.;

  • 授予单位 University of Maryland, College Park.;
  • 学科 Engineering System Science.; Operations Research.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1997
  • 页码 212 p.
  • 总页数 212
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 系统科学;运筹学;
  • 关键词

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