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Stochastic operation management model for a multi-reservoir inter-basin water resource system.

机译：多水库跨流域水资源系统的随机运行管理模型。

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摘要

The discrepancy between the quantity and regime of water consumption and natural river flow usually gives rise to the need to create a multi-reservoir inter-basin water resource system to redistribute the river flow temporally and spatially. As the economic value of water increases and inexpensive sources of water supply diminish, the development of an optimal operation management model becomes more and more important.; In this thesis, a stochastic operation management model composing of two integrated models of stochastic multi-site flow generation model and deterministic Dynamic Programming optimization model is developed to determine the optimal operation of a multi-reservoir inter-basin water resource system. The stochastic multi-site flow generation model is used to generate synthetic flow series as input to the optimization model. In this model, the stochastic nature of historical flows to reservoirs, i.e. auto-correlation and cross-correlation is explicitly considered. The deterministic Dynamic Programming optimization model is developed to determine the optimum operation policies for each of the many synthetic flow series through application of the optimization model to the multi-reservoir inter-basin water resource system. The approach of separating these two models will overcome the curse of dimensionality encountered in existing DP optimization models while allowing the stochastic nature of inflows to be incorporated into the optimization process and resulting optimum operation policies.; The real case study approach, selection criteria and description of case study area, Lar-Kalan-Latian water resource system in Tehran, Iran as a multi-reservoir inter-basin water resource system is discussed. The superiority of a real case study in comparison with a hypothetical or abstract one is demonstrated.; A comprehensive review and identification of stochastic multi-site flow generation models and discussion of available flow generation computer programs are presented. The statistical analysis of historical monthly and annual flow data of the case study, setting up of HEC-4 program as direct method and SPIGOT program as disaggregation technique, and generation and verification of synthetic monthly and annual flow series for the case study are discussed. The comparison of HEC-4 and SPIGOT synthetic flow series with historical data shows the effectiveness of SPIGOT program against HEC-4, even for the short historical flow input data.; A detailed review and discussion of the Dynamic Programming techniques and development of deterministic DP optimization model for the multi-reservoir inter-basin water resource system is carried out. The generation, comparison, statistical analysis, and reliability characteristics of optimum monthly operation polices determine by applying the developed DP optimization model is discussed. The comparison of optimum operation with historical operation demonstrates the usefulness and improvement of optimum operation upon historical operation. It is further concluded that the DP optimization model is not sensitive to the type of stochastic flow generation model used to generate synthetic flows. Finally, the development of optimum operation reliability characteristics demonstrates the application of stochastic operation management model in planning and operation of multi-reservoir inter-basin water resource system.
机译：用水量和水量与自然河流流量之间的差异通常导致需要建立一个多水库跨流域水资源系统，以在时间和空间上重新分配河流流量。随着水的经济价值的增加和廉价的水供应源的减少，最优运行管理模型的发展变得越来越重要。本文建立了由随机多站点流量生成模型和确定性动态规划优化模型两个集成模型组成的随机运行管理模型，以确定多水库跨流域水资源系统的最优运行。随机多站点流生成模型用于生成综合流序列，作为优化模型的输入。在该模型中，明确考虑了历史水库的随机性，即自相关和互相关。通过将确定性模型应用到多水库跨流域水资源系统中，开发了确定性的动态规划优化模型，以针对多个合成流序列中的每一个确定最优操作策略。分离这两个模型的方法将克服现有DP优化模型中遇到的维数问题，同时允许将流入量的随机性合并到优化过程中并产生最佳的操作策略。讨论了真正的案例研究方法，选择标准和案例研究区域的描述，伊朗德黑兰的Lar-Kalan-Latian水资源系统作为多水库跨流域水资源系统。证明了真实案例研究与假设或抽象案例研究相比的优越性。本文对随机多站点流量生成模型进行了全面的综述和鉴定，并对可用的流量生成计算机程序进行了讨论。讨论了案例研究的历史月和年度流量数据的统计分析，建立了直接方法的HEC-4程序和作为分解技术的SPIGOT程序的建立以及案例研究的合成月和年度流量序列的生成和验证。 HEC-4和SPIGOT合成流量序列与历史数据的比较表明，即使对于较短的历史流量输入数据，SPIGOT程序针对HEC-4的有效性。对多水库跨流域水资源系统的动态规划技术和确定性DP优化模型的发展进行了详细的回顾和讨论。讨论了使用开发的DP优化模型确定最佳月度运营策略的生成，比较，统计分析和可靠性特征。最优运行与历史运行的比较证明了最优运行对历史运行的有用性和改进。进一步得出结论，DP优化模型对用于生成合成流的随机流生成模型的类型不敏感。最后，最优运行可靠性特征的发展证明了随机运行管理模型在多水库跨流域水资源系统的规划和运行中的应用。

著录项

  • 作者

    Khajemogahi, Abdolkarim.;

  • 作者单位

    McMaster University (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 McMaster University (Canada).;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1996
  • 页码 265 p.
  • 总页数 265
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 建筑科学;
  • 关键词

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