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Analyzing investments under climate change uncertainty: Managing levels of the Great Lakes.

机译：在气候变化不确定性下分析投资：大湖区的管理水平。

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摘要

According to the Dixit and Pindyck's (1994) theory of investment, oprimal decisions to investment problems that satisfy three requirements--irreversibility, uncertainty in future rewards, and flexibility in timing--need to explicitly consider the cost of exercising the option of making the investment. The Great Lakes levels management problem that I analyze here meets the above three criteria. Construction of a control structure on Lake Erie is the irreversible decision, its future benefits are subject to climate change uncertainty, and the investment decision can be delayed into the future. The International Joint Commission (IJC) conducted a multi-year, multi-million dollar study to analyze this investment decision. They used a simple scenario analysis based procedure where they assumed that the past (NBS) will repeat in the future; they did not explicitly include climate change uncertainty or flexibility in timing in their decision process.;In this dissertation, I explicitly include climate change uncertainty and flexibility in timing into my analytic process. I quantify the expected value of including climate change uncertainty, the expected value of perfect climate change information, and the option value of waiting. I have used a Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC)-based sequential decision analysis framework for conducting this study. This is the first time that Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation has been combined with sequential decision tree analysis for solving management problems. At each future stage, I update my belief in climate change based on the available observations of Net Basin Supplies. I used the CWRU Great Lakes Hydraulic and Socio-Economic Impact Simulation Model to quantify the net benefits. To assess the importance of climate change compared to other uncertainties, I compare these values; with those associated with uncertainty in shoreline (flooding and erosion) damages. I repeated this analysis under shoreline damage uncertainty. Considering the EVIU's, I infer that for certain scenarios the climate change and shoreline damage uncertainties are of comparable importance. The NPV of the option value of waiting by conducting a three stage decision tree analysis (for acquiring climate change information) was estimated to be ;I also conducted sensitivity analysis with respect to different parameter and decision variable values. Plan 25N was found to be the best plan among Plans 12N, 25N, and 50N. An increase in the number of decision stages increases the total optimal expected net benefits, as expected. The severity of climate change determines whether the net benefits due to global warming in the Great Lakes Basin are positive or negative. In particular, an extreme climate change scenario (MPI) will make a 3-lake plan attractive because of substantial reduction in navigational costs while a mild scenario (UKMO) will make such a plan unattractive. The option value of waiting falls to zero under high discount rates while it can be substantial under low discount rates. Lastly, the BMC simulation procedure was found to be feasible but computationally very demanding.
机译：根据Dixit和Pindyck（1994）的投资理论，对满足三个条件（不可逆性，未来奖励的不确定性和时机的灵活性）的投资问题作出的决策是需要明确考虑行使选择权的成本。投资。我在这里分析的大湖区水位管理问题满足以上三个条件。在伊利湖上建立控制结构是不可逆转的决定，其未来收益会受到气候变化不确定性的影响，投资决定可能会推迟到未来。国际联合委员会（IJC）进行了多年，数百万美元的研究，以分析该投资决定。他们使用了一个简单的基于情景分析的程序，他们假设过去（NBS）会在将来重演。他们没有在决策过程中明确包含气候变化的不确定性或时间上的灵活性。在本文中，我明确将气候变化不确定性和时间上的灵活性纳入了我的分析过程。我对包括气候变化不确定性的期望值，完美的气候变化信息的期望值以及等待的期权值进行了量化。我已经使用基于贝叶斯蒙特卡洛（BMC）的顺序决策分析框架来进行这项研究。这是贝叶斯蒙特卡洛模拟法首次与顺序决策树分析相结合来解决管理问题。在未来的每个阶段，我都会根据净盆地供应量的现有观察结果更新对气候变化的信念。我使用了CWRU大湖区水力和社会经济影响模拟模型来量化净收益。为了评估与其他不确定性相比气候变化的重要性，我比较了这些值。与海岸线不确定性（洪水和侵蚀）相关的那些。我在海岸线破坏的不确定性下重复了这一分析。考虑到EVIU，我推断在某些情况下，气候变化和海岸线破坏的不确定性具有相当的重要性。通过进行三阶段决策树分析（用于获取气候变化信息）的等待期权价值的NPV估计为；我还针对不同的参数和决策变量值进行了敏感性分析。发现25N计划是12N，25N和50N计划中最好的计划。如预期的那样，决策阶段数量的增加会增加总的最佳预期净收益。气候变化的严重性决定了大湖盆地全球变暖带来的净收益是正的还是负的。特别是，极端的气候变化情景（MPI）将使三湖计划具有吸引力，因为航行成本大大降低，而温和的情景（UKMO）将使这种计划没有吸引力。在高折现率下，等待的期权价值降至零，而在低折现率下则可能很大。最后，发现BMC模拟程序是可行的，但计算上却要求很高。

著录项

  • 作者

    Venkatesh, Boddu Naga.;

  • 作者单位

    Case Western Reserve University.;

  • 授予单位 Case Western Reserve University.;
  • 学科 Systems science.;Public administration.;Urban planning.;Agricultural economics.;Environmental science.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1996
  • 页码 332 p.
  • 总页数 332
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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