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Value of information for environmental policy research.

机译：信息对于环境政策研究的价值。

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摘要

The standard value of information (VOI) model is used for measuring the expected value of new information based on its impact on the knowledge about uncertainties of future events. The standard framework is a powerful tool for use in making decisions about investments in such information gathering efforts. The framework provides a strong result, that, information is valuable only if it changes the pre-information decision. Further, this model is useful for situations where a single decision maker decides on the whether to buy new information and decides on the downstream decisions (decisions which are affected by the said information).;However, there are situations where the agency deciding to buy information and the agency making downstream decisions are different. In such scenarios, the agency choosing whether to invest in information collection cannot obtain an estimate of the value of such information using the standard value of information model.;The objective of this thesis is to develop a methodology for calculating the value of information for this two agency problem as described in the preceding paragraph.;We modify the standard value of information model by considering the downstream decisions by second agency as events. Some contrasts between the standard value of information and the proposed framework are drawn. The proposed framework is also compared to the value of control model. Our results indicate that although the expected value of information from our framework may be negative, it is positive under some relatively mild conditions.;We then provide examples of application of the proposed framework to a broad range of policy oriented environmental research. We conclude with a section on factors which may affect relevant probability estimates.
机译：信息标准值（VOI）模型用于根据新信息对未来事件的不确定性知识的影响来衡量新信息的期望值。标准框架是用于对此类信息收集工作中的投资做出决策的强大工具。该框架提供了一个强有力的结果，即信息只有在改变信息前的决策时才有价值。此外，该模型对于单个决策者决定是否购买新信息并决定下游决策（受所述信息影响的决策）的情况很有用;但是，在某些情况下，代理商决定购买信息和做出下游决策的机构是不同的。在这种情况下，选择是否投资于信息收集的机构无法使用信息的标准价值模型来获得此类信息的价值估计值。本论文的目的是开发一种计算该信息价值的方法。前文所述的两个代理问题。；我们通过将第二个代理的下游决策视为事件来修改信息模型的标准值。得出了信息标准价值与所提出的框架之间的一些对比。所提出的框架也与控制模型的价值进行了比较。我们的结果表明，尽管来自我们框架的信息的期望值可能为负，但在某些相对温和的条件下却为正。；然后，我们提供了将提议的框架应用于广泛的面向政策的环境研究的示例。我们以关于可能影响相关概率估计的因素的一节作为结尾。

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  • 作者

    Mohan, Mayank.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Southern California.;

  • 授予单位 University of Southern California.;
  • 学科 Environmental Sciences.;Operations Research.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 126 p.
  • 总页数 126
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 环境科学基础理论;运筹学;
  • 关键词

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