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Strategic and political implications of strategic defense systems' development.

机译：战略防御系统发展的战略和政治意义。

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摘要

The international system is in a process of transition. It is probable that the future international system will be a balance of power one. A mathematical model based on the concept of entropy suggests that the emerging system might be less stable than the former one. It is also expected that an increased number of countries will have nuclear capabilities and adequate means of delivery. Therefore a reasonable level of military power must be maintained in order to protect our national interests.;The significant changes taking place in the world require a reexamination of the role of the vulnerability based deterrence in preventing a nuclear war. I do this reexamination by developing a set of functions (curves) for analyzing the utility of the first nuclear strike and the disutility of the corresponding counterstrike. I conclude that internal causes and structural systemic factors will relatively limit the role of vulnerability based deterrence in the emerging international system. Consequently, in order to compensate for an even limited failure of MAD, confidence building measures and/or disarmament agreements should be associated with the development and future deployment of strategic defensive systems. The SDI debate and some recent technological achievements suggest that the defense against ballistic missiles, conceived in rational and realistic terms, might be an attainable objective.;The necessity of strategic defense is supported by two sets of dynamical models. The first shows that a strategic offensive weapons arms race is unstable and indicates how the arms race's spiral occurs. It allows one to conclude that the development and future deployment of strategic defensive systems might be a means to control and to scale down the strategic offensive arms race. The second set includes three optimal control models. They may be used for studying the relationship between strategic offensive weapons and strategic defensive systems, and for deriving potentially optimal policies. These policies refer to the modernization and (probable) reduction of strategic offensive forces, and to the development and (probable) future deployment of strategic defensive systems. The computer programs which I wrote for the models allow one to efficiently simulate various possible scenarios.
机译：国际体系正在过渡。未来的国际体系很可能将成为一种均势。基于熵概念的数学模型表明，新兴系统可能不如前一个系统稳定。预计还将有越来越多的国家拥有核能力和适当的运载工具。因此，为了维护我们的国家利益，必须维持合理水平的军事力量。世界上发生的重大变化要求重新审查基于脆弱性的威慑在防止核战争中的作用。我通过开发一组功能（曲线）来进行这种重新检查，以分析第一次核打击的效用和相应的反击的无效性。我得出结论，内部原因和结构性系统因素将相对限制新兴市场国际体系中基于脆弱性的威慑作用。因此，为了弥补MAD的有限失败，应该将建立信任措施和/或裁军协议与战略防御系统的发展和未来部署联系起来。 SDI辩论和最近的一些技术成就表明，以合理和现实的方式构想的弹道导弹防御可能是可以实现的目标。战略防御的必要性受到两套动力学模型的支持。第一个表明战略进攻性武器军备竞赛是不稳定的，并表明军备竞赛的螺旋式发展是如何发生的。它可以得出结论，战略防御系统的发展和未来部署可能是控制和缩减战略进攻军备竞赛的一种手段。第二组包括三个最优控制模型。它们可用于研究战略进攻性武器与战略防御系统之间的关系，并用于推导潜在的最优政策。这些政策指的是战略进攻力量的现代化和（可能）减少，以及战略防御系统的发展和（可能）未来的部署。我为模型编写的计算机程序使人们可以有效地模拟各种可能的情况。

著录项

  • 作者

    Tsaganea, Doru.;

  • 作者单位

    City University of New York.;

  • 授予单位 City University of New York.;
  • 学科 Political Science International Law and Relations.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1992
  • 页码 385 p.
  • 总页数 385
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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