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首页> 外文学位 >Industry structure and regional growth: A vector autoregression forecasting model of the Wisconsin regional economy.
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Industry structure and regional growth: A vector autoregression forecasting model of the Wisconsin regional economy.

机译：产业结构与区域增长：威斯康星州区域经济的向量自回归预测模型。

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摘要

One of the oldest and most durable theories of regional growth is economic base theory. Despite its wide acceptance as a framework for applied regional economic analysis, economic base theory and its methodological techniques have long been criticized as inadequate for such purposes. In recent years, however, time-series modeling and econometric techniques have been employed to provide additional evidence in support of the economic base hypothesis. The purpose of this research was to confirm and extend the results of these time-series econometric models of regional economic activity.The results of the empirical tests conducted in this research fall into three distinct categories. The first category of results are those in which the traditional formulation of the economic base hypothesis was subjected to a set of four time-series econometric tests of the economic base hypothesis. The results of this category of tests were conclusive: They provided no evidence to support the validity of the traditional formulation of the economic base hypothesis.The second category of empirical results were those in which an alternative formulation of the economic base hypothesis was considered. An out-of-sample forecasting competition was established as a test of this alternative hypothesis. The results of this forecasting competition suggested that both economic base and input-output theoretic vector autoregressions captured significant information about the nature of the Wisconsin regional economy.The third and final category of empirical results provided information with respect to the robustness debate of the macroeconomics time-series literature. Two issues in particular, the time aggregation issue and the trend specification issue, were addressed within the context of the first set of tests of the economic base hypothesis. With respect to the time aggregation issue, the results of this research indicate that time aggregation of the data can have an effect upon inferences drawn within the context of any given hypothesis testing procedure. By contrast, the inclusion of a time trend does not appear to alter the results of such hypothesis tests.
机译：经济基础理论是最古老，最持久的区域增长理论之一。尽管它被广泛接受为应用区域经济分析的框架，但长期以来，人们批评经济基础理论及其方法论不足以达到上述目的。但是，近年来，已采用时间序列建模和计量经济学技术来提供其他证据来支持经济基础假设。本研究的目的是确认和扩展这些区域经济活动的时序计量经济模型的结果。本研究进行的实证检验的结果分为三个不同的类别。第一类结果是对经济基础假设的传统提法进行一组经济基础假设的四个时间序列计量经济检验的结果。这类检验的结果是结论性的：它们没有提供任何证据来支持经济基础假设的传统提法的有效性。第二类实证结果是考虑了经济基础假设的另一提法的结果。建立了样本外预测竞争，以此检验该替代假设。预测竞争的结果表明，经济基础和投入产出理论向量自回归都获得了有关威斯康星州区域经济性质的重要信息。第三和最后一类实证结果提供了有关宏观经济学时间的健壮性辩论的信息系列文学。在第一套经济基础假设检验的背景下，特别解决了两个问题，即时间汇总问题和趋势指定问题。关于时间聚合问题，这项研究的结果表明，数据的时间聚合可能会对在任何给定的假设检验程序的背景下得出的推论产生影响。相反，时间趋势的出现似乎不会改变这种假设检验的结果。

著录项

  • 作者

    Krikelas, Andrew Constantine.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Wisconsin - Madison.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Wisconsin - Madison.;
  • 学科 Economics General.Economics Agricultural.Urban and Regional Planning.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1991
  • 页码 345 p.
  • 总页数 345
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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