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Rapid assessment of the impacts of climate change (RAICC): An integrated approach to understanding climate change in the Halton region of Ontario, Canada.

机译：快速评估气候变化的影响（RAICC）：了解加拿大安大略省哈尔顿地区气候变化的综合方法。

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摘要

Climate change has resulted, and will result, in a set of diverse and regionally-specific impacts on natural ecosystems and human societies. Canadian municipalities can play an important and vital role in addressing climate change especially in mitigating or adapting to existing or future climate change impacts. Municipalities need direction on the priority that should be given to climate change in their community. This study focuses on developing an integrated approach to setting this priority called the Rapid Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change (RAICC), and is applied to the Regional Municipality of Halton, Ontario, Canada. The five step RAICC approach includes building a history of climate extremes, selecting a model for climate futures, building a future of climate extremes, linking climate indices to adaptation thresholds and then conducting a relative risk assessment of the impacts. Results from applying the approach to the Halton Region show that climate change is an important issue to Halton, and its importance will increase over the 21 st century. Climate observations show increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation over the past 28 years. Future climate modelling projects continued increases in temperatures for Halton Region on average 3.8°C by the year 2100, mostly in minimum temperatures. Also, the climate models show that changes to precipitation levels eventually level off by mid-century with a slight increase by the year 2100. A literature review was conducted in order to identify climate change adaptation thresholds (sensitivities triggered at certain climate thresholds above which result in significant changes that may require some form of human interventionist adaptation) for ten economic and ecological sectors of Halton Region. The changes in risks/opportunities were assessed together with the model uncertainty to provide a relative risk assessment on the impacts of climate change at Halton Region. This study concludes that the built environment, agriculture and tourism are those eco-sectors in Halton Region requiring priority focus, more in-depth study and subsequent action.
机译：气候变化已经并将并将对自然生态系统和人类社会产生一系列不同的，针对特定地区的影响。加拿大市政当局可以在应对气候变化方面发挥重要作用，尤其是在缓解或适应现有或未来的气候变化影响方面。市政当局需要就其社区应对气候变化给予优先考虑的方向。这项研究的重点是开发一种综合的方法来设定此优先级，称为“气候变化影响的快速评估”（RAICC），并应用于加拿大安大略省哈尔顿市。 RAICC的五步方法包括建立极端气候的历史，选择气候未来的模型，建立极端气候的未来，将气候指数与适应阈值联系起来，然后对影响进行相对风险评估。将方法应用于霍尔顿地区的结果表明，气候变化是霍尔顿的重要问题，其重要性将在21世纪增加。气候观测表明，在过去28年中，温度升高且降水减少。到2100年，未来的气候模拟项目将继续在Halton地区平均增加3.8°C的温度，主要是在最低温度下。此外，气候模型表明，到本世纪中叶，降水水平的变化最终会趋于平稳，到2100年略有增加。进行了文献综述，以确定气候变化的适应阈值（在某些气候阈值之上触发的敏感性，高于此阈值会可能需要对霍尔顿地区的十个经济和生态部门进行某种形式的人为干预的重大改变）。对风险/机会的变化以及模型不确定性进行了评估，以对霍尔顿地区气候变化的影响进行相对风险评估。这项研究得出的结论是，建筑环境，农业和旅游业是霍尔顿地区的那些生态部门，需要重点关注，进行更深入的研究并采取后续行动。

著录项

  • 作者

    Fenech, Adam.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Toronto (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 University of Toronto (Canada).;
  • 学科 Physical Geography.;Environmental Sciences.;Climate Change.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 323 p.
  • 总页数 323
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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