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首页> 外文学位 >INFLATION--DEFICIT--MONEY-SUPPLY NEXUS IN AN OPEN ECONOMY WITH RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS: AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH (MONETARY, MACRO, ARGENTINA).
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INFLATION--DEFICIT--MONEY-SUPPLY NEXUS IN AN OPEN ECONOMY WITH RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS: AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH (MONETARY, MACRO, ARGENTINA).

机译：具有理性预期的开放经济中的通货膨胀-赤字-货币供求关系：一种经验方法（货币，宏观，阿根廷）。

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摘要

One guiding principle of this paper has been to synthesize a number of macroeconomic issues--an endogenous government deficit and money supply, and the latter's impact on inflation and balance of payments under the assumption of "rational" expectations--in a monetary framework and understand the interactions among them. The other has been to address econometric issues raised by the "rationality" of forward expectations. In an application to Argentina's experience with rampant inflation in 1970s, limited information estimators are employed, and use of a relatively new and efficient estimator, 2S-2SLS, is investigated.; The model focuses on (i) the endogenous forces that cause monetary imbalance, and on (ii) balance of payments, and domestic inflation's short-run deviation from the long-run course in a 2-good world--traded and non-traded. Fiscal deficit emerges because lag in collection of revenues is larger than lag in execution of expenditures; furthermore, expenditure elasticity is higher than tax elasticity with respect to income. The consequent deficit is monetized. For money demand, "rational" expectations are assumed. Here inflation feeds on itself while external sector provides an outlet for domestic imbalances.; Some interesting estimation issues are raised by non-observability of forward expectation terms in addition to those raised by assumption of "rationality". McCallum's limited information technique is employed to obtain consistent estimates. Here, the dilemma between correction for inefficiency, and desirability of consistency is resolved by application of 2S-2SLS.; 1970s' Argentina which saw an uncontrollable government deficit, high inflation and a weak external balance--an economic climate with its roots in monetary and fiscal imbalances--provides a good historical sample for an empirical application of the model. Estimates of the structural parameters are similar to those obtained from previous independent studies and corroborate the proposed hypotheses.; Dynamic simulation of the model shows that it captures historical phenomena fairly well. Dynamic stability of the model is put to test by studying the impact of an external shock--a short-lived jump in international inflation, like an oil price shock. The dampening of deviations of each of the endogenous series from "benchmark" paths indicates a dynamically stable model.
机译：本文的一个指导原则是在货币框架内综合一系列宏观经济问题，即内生的政府赤字和货币供应，以及后者在“理性”预期的假设下对通货膨胀和国际收支的影响。了解他们之间的互动。另一个是解决由前瞻性期望的“合理性”引起的计量经济学问题。阿根廷在1970年代通货膨胀猖experience的经验中应用了有限的信息估计量，并研究了使用相对较新且有效的估计量2S-2SLS。该模型着重于（i）导致货币失衡的内在力量，以及（ii）国际收支以及国内通货膨胀与两好世界中长期路线的短期偏离-贸易和非贸易。出现财政赤字是因为收税的滞后大于支出的执行滞后；此外，就收入而言，支出弹性要高于税收弹性。随之产生的赤字被货币化。对于货币需求，假定“理性”期望。通货膨胀以自身为生，而外部部门则为国内失衡提供了出路。除了通过“合理性”的假设提出的预测期望之外，由于无法观察到前瞻性预期条件提出了一些有趣的估计问题。麦卡勒姆有限的信息技术被用来获得一致的估计。此处，通过应用2S-2SLS解决了效率低下的校正与一致性的期望之间的难题。 1970年代的阿根廷经历了无法控制的政府赤字，高通货膨胀和薄弱的外部平衡-根源于货币和财政失衡的经济环境-为该模型的经验应用提供了良好的历史样本。结构参数的估计与之前的独立研究相似，证实了所提出的假设。该模型的动态仿真表明，它可以很好地捕获历史现象。通过研究外部冲击的影响来测试模型的动态稳定性，这种冲击是国际通货膨胀的短暂跳跃，就像油价冲击一样。每个内生序列与“基准”路径的偏差的衰减表明动态稳定的模型。

著录项

  • 作者

    SAXENA, RAHUL NARAIN.;

  • 作者单位

    Columbia University.;

  • 授予单位 Columbia University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1986
  • 页码 238 p.
  • 总页数 238
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 经济学;
  • 关键词

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