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GOLD PRICES AND POLITICAL TENSION (RISK, INSTABILITY).

机译：黄金价格和政治张力（风险，不稳定）。

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摘要

Research literature and popular press articles are reviewed concerning the issue of whether or not the market price of gold is sensitive to political crisis. Although there is a largely held belief that political crisis affects gold prices it is shown that political turmoil in general has no systematic effect on gold prices. However a special set of political development in Middle Eastern countries has a strong impact on gold prices.;A second approach is to estimate a gold price equation jointly with an oil price equation using a time domain dynamic factor analysis. This technique creates an unobservable political crisis variable which is used by the technique as a proxy for political crisis in the Middle East. The estimation results indicate that the unobservable political crisis variable has a significant positive impact on both the gold and the oil price and that this unobservable political crisis variable is significantly linked to armed attacks and riots in the Middle East.;A simulation exercise is used to test the validity of the model and its response to political tensions. The model simulates price developments over the entire sample period extremely well.;An instrumental variable technique is used to test the hypothesis that political crisis in the Middle East has an impact on gold prices. The results indicate that political crisis as measured by armed attacks and riots in the Middle East has a significant positive impact on gold prices while political crisis measured in terms of armed attacks and riots in non Middle East countries has no impact.
机译：综述了有关黄金市场价格是否对政治危机敏感的研究文献和大众媒体文章。尽管人们普遍相信政治危机会影响金价，但事实表明，政治动荡总体上对金价没有系统性影响。但是，中东国家的一系列特殊政治发展对金价产生重大影响。第二种方法是使用时域动态因子分析来联合估算金价方程和石油价格方程。这种技术产生了一个不可观察的政治危机变量，该变量被该技术用作中东政治危机的代表。估计结果表明，无法观察到的政治危机变量对黄金和石油价格均具有显着的积极影响，并且该无法观察到的政治危机变量与中东的武装袭击和骚乱有显着联系。检验模型的有效性及其对政治紧张局势的反应。该模型非常好地模拟了整个样本期间的价格走势。；工具变量技术用于检验中东政治危机对金价产生影响的假设。结果表明，以中东的武装袭击和骚乱衡量的政治危机对黄金价格产生了显着的积极影响，而以非中东国家的武装袭击和骚乱衡量的政治危机没有影响。

著录项

  • 作者

    CHERKAOUI, MOUNA.;

  • 作者单位

    Arizona State University.;

  • 授予单位 Arizona State University.;
  • 学科 Economics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1986
  • 页码 121 p.
  • 总页数 121
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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