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FORECASTING THE STRUCTURE OF MINNESOTA AGRICULTURE AND THE CHANGES NEEDED WITHIN THE MINNESOTA AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SERVICE BY THE YEAR 2000 - A DELPHI STUDY. (VOLUMES I AND II).

机译：预测到2000年的明尼苏达州农业结构及其在明尼苏达州农业推广服务中所需要的变化-一个德尔菲研究。（第一和第二卷）。

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This study assumes that the structure of Minnesota agriculture will change. The extent of change needs to be understood by decision-makers so they can make decisions that will ensure the capability of the Minnesota Agricultural Extension Service to meet the information needs of Minnesota agriculture by the year 2000 and beyond.;The data were analyzed and reported in several ways in the study. Of significance is the compilation of change statements by issues that: (1) have a high probability of occurring; (2) are a high priority to Minnesota agriculture and the Minnesota Agricultural Extension Service; and (3) will have a high impact upon productivity, the use of capital and/or upon the environment. The data were also reported as to their implications to the structure of Minnesota agriculture and to the Minnesota Agricultural Extension Service.;The study concludes with a list of sixty-six structural changes in Minnesota agriculture as having a high probability of occurring by the year 2000. A list of forty-five changes were concluded as being necessary within the Minnesota Agricultural Extension Service for it to effectively meet the information needs of Minnesota agriculture by the year 2000. This study primarily identified issues that need to be placed on decision-making agendas of the future. A significant finding of this study was the similarity of findings to the findings of other studies on these same issues using different research techniques.;A modified Delphi technique, asking additional questions in each succeeding round, was used to develop a scenario on the structure of Minnesota agriculture by the year 2000. Based on the development of a perception of the future structure of agriculture, panelists were asked to forecast the changes needed within the Minnesota Agricultural Extension Service for it to remain a principal source of information to Minnesota agriculture until the year 2000 and beyond.

机译：本研究假设明尼苏达州的农业结构将发生变化。决策者需要了解变化的程度，以便他们做出决策，以确保明尼苏达州农业推广服务部有能力在2000年及以后的时间里满足明尼苏达州农业的信息需求。在研究中有几种方式。重要的是通过以下问题来编制变更声明：（1）发生的可能性很高；（2）是明尼苏达州农业和明尼苏达州农业推广服务部门的高度优先事项；（3）将对生产率，资本使用和/或环境产生重大影响。还报告了这些数据对明尼苏达州农业结构和明尼苏达州农业推广服务的影响。该研究总结了明尼苏达州农业的六十六种结构变化清单，认为到2000年很有可能发生。为了在2000年之前有效满足明尼苏达州农业的信息需求，明尼苏达州农业推广服务局做出了45项必要的更改清单，这项研究主要确定了需要列入决策议程的问题。未来。这项研究的一个重要发现是使用不同的研究方法，这些发现与其他研究在相同问题上的发现具有相似性。一种改进的Delphi技术，在随后的每一轮研究中都提出了其他问题，从而提出了关于明尼苏达州的农业发展到2000年。基于对未来农业结构的认识的发展，要求小组成员对明尼苏达州农业推广服务部门的变化进行预测，以使其在本年度之前仍是明尼苏达州农业的主要信息来源。 2000年及以后。

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BURCALOW, HARRY BENSON.;
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作者单位

University of Minnesota.;

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授予单位 University of Minnesota.;
学科 Agricultural education.
学位 Ph.D.
年度 1985
页码 565 p.
总页数 565
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
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FORECASTING THE STRUCTURE OF MINNESOTA AGRICULTURE AND THE CHANGES NEEDED WITHIN THE MINNESOTA AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SERVICE BY THE YEAR 2000 - A DELPHI STUDY. (VOLUMES I AND II).

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