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APPLICATION OF SPECTRAL ANALYSIS TO THE CYCLE REGRESSION ALGORITHM (TIME SERIES, FORECASTING, NON-LINEAR REGRESSION)

机译:谱分析在循环回归算法中的应用(时间序列,预测,非线性回归)

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摘要

Many techniques have been developed to analyze time series. Spectral analysis and cycle regression analysis represent two such techniques. This study combines these two powerful tools to produce two new algorithms; the spectral algorithm and the one-pass algorithm.;This research encompasses four objectives. The first objective is to link spectral analysis with cycle regression analysis to determine an initial estimate of the sinusoidal period. The second objective is to determine the best spectral window and truncation point combination to use with cycle regression for the initial estimate of the sinusoidal period. The third is to determine whether the new spectral algorithm performs better than the old T-value algorithm in estimating sinusoidal parameters. The fourth objective is to determine whether the one-pass algorithm can be used to estimate all significant harmonics simultaneously.;Based upon the analysis of the findings in this study, the following conclusions can be derived. (1) Spectral analysis is successfully linked with cycle regression analysis in this study. The results indicate that the spectral method of evaluating autocorrelations of the residuals, to obtain an initial estimate of a harmonic period, can replace the present T-value procedure. (2) The spectral algorithm was found to be extremely successful in estimating up to eight harmonics when it was linked with the combination of Tukey window and truncation point of 40% than with any other combination. (3) The new spectral algorithm performs better than the old T-value algorithm. As the number of harmonics were increased and as the percentage of the noise increased in the data, the spectral algorithm was found to perform better in estimating the harmonic parameters than the T-value algorithm. (4) The new one-pass algorithm fails to estimate all of the harmonics simultaneously when the periods of the two harmonics are close.;This study finds that the new spectral algorithm is a powerful tool in estimating time series components. The new algorithm can be used successfully in estimating one or more of the following time series components; linear and non-linear research indicates that there is a need to develop a technique to estimate all harmonics simultaneously.
机译:已经开发了许多技术来分析时间序列。频谱分析和循环回归分析代表了两种此类技术。这项研究结合了这两个强大的工具,以产生两个新算法。频谱算法和单遍算法。本研究涵盖四个目标。第一个目标是将光谱分析与循环回归分析联系起来,以确定正弦曲线周期的初始估计。第二个目标是确定最佳光谱窗口和截断点组合,以与循环回归一起用于正弦周期的初始估计。第三是确定新的频谱算法在估计正弦参数方面是否比旧的T值算法更好。第四个目标是确定单程算法是否可用于同时估计所有重要谐波。;基于对本研究结果的分析,可以得出以下结论。 (1)本研究将光谱分析与循环回归分析成功地联系在一起。结果表明,评估残差自相关的频谱方法,以获得谐波周期的初始估计,可以代替当前的T值程序。 (2)当频谱算法与Tukey窗口和40%的截断点的组合相关联时,与其他任何组合相比,它在估计多达8个谐波方面非常成功。 (3)新的频谱算法比旧的T值算法性能更好。随着数据中谐波次数的增加和噪声百分比的增加,发现频谱算法在估计谐波参数方面比T值算法表现更好。 (4)当两个谐波的周期接近时,新的单次通过算法不能同时估计所有谐波。研究发现,新的频谱算法是估算时间序列分量的有力工具。新算法可成功用于估计以下一个或多个时间序列成分;线性和非线性研究表明,需要开发一种可以同时估算所有谐波的技术。

著录项

  • 作者

    SHAH, VIVEK P.;

  • 作者单位

    University of North Texas.;

  • 授予单位 University of North Texas.;
  • 学科 Business administration.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1984
  • 页码 210 p.
  • 总页数 210
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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