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首页> 外文学位 >AN INQUIRY INTO THE MEASUREMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CROP SUPPLY RESPONSE--A SYSTEM APPROACH.
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AN INQUIRY INTO THE MEASUREMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CROP SUPPLY RESPONSE--A SYSTEM APPROACH.

机译：个体作物供应响应的测量方法的探讨-一种系统方法。

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摘要

In 1955 Heady hypothesized that supply response for individual crops should be elastic. His hypothesis was based on the observation that nearly every farmer possess the necessary skill and equipment to choose between growing two or more alternative crops and that this choice would reflect the expected relative returns of the two crops. At the same time, Heady suggested that the response for agricultural output as a whole should be fairly inelastic given the difficulty of bringing new land into production. However, results of sixty years of econometric supply response work must be interpreted as measuring a rather low degree of price response. This evidence has generated the view that supply for individual crops is generally inelastic--a view that remains in sharp contrast with expectations based on economic theory and knowledge of agricultural production.;However, traditional econometric techniques are employed which result in a complete system of own- and cross-price interrelationships for eight major crop supplies in the U.S. Furthermore, by viewing crop supply response as a system, as opposed to individual equations, it is demonstrated that a deeper understanding of supply behavior is possible. If the relative price of any particular crop is higher or lower than some norm, the estimates imply major shifts for future production mixes. Subsequent adjustments then occur which work to bring the relative prices back toward their normal level. On the other hand, if all prices rise proportionately, little supply response is suggested.;This thesis represents an inquiry into this contradiction. Its argued that the high collinearity among prices, which is to be expected given a high degree of substitutability among crops, has caused empirical results to have been misinterpreted. Multicollinearity has led to the omission of most or all substitute prices from many studies. Omission of these relevant variables has biased the resulting own-price estimates toward the inelastic output effect. This argument implies a need for estimates of the entire system of price interrelationships in order to more fully understand the supply responses for individual crops. But, at the same time, this reasoning emphasizes the difficulty of obtaining such a system of estimates--a Catch 22 phenomenon.
机译：1955年，海蒂（Heady）提出，单个作物的供应反应应该具有弹性。他的假设基于以下观察结果：几乎每个农民都拥有在种植两种或更多种替代作物之间进行选择的必要技能和设备，并且这种选择将反映两种作物的预期相对收益。同时，海蒂建议，鉴于将新土地投入生产的困难，整个农业产出的应对应该是缺乏弹性的。但是，必须将60年计量经济供应响应工作的结果解释为衡量价格响应的程度较低。这一证据产生了这样的观点，即单个农作物的供应通常是无弹性的-与基于经济理论和农业生产知识的预期形成鲜明对比的观点;然而，采用了传统的计量经济学技术，从而形成了一个完整的经济计量系统。美国八个主要农作物供应的自身价格和交叉价格之间的相互关系。此外，通过将农作物供应响应视为一个系统，而不是单个方程，这表明对供应行为的更深入了解是可能的。如果任何特定作物的相对价格高于或低于某个标准，则估计值暗示着未来生产结构的重大变化。然后进行后续调整，以使相对价格回到正常水平。另一方面，如果所有价格均按比例上涨，则建议的供给反应很少。；本论文代表对这一矛盾的质询。它认为，由于农作物之间的高度可替代性，价格之间的高共线性会导致对经验结果的误解。多重共线性导致许多研究忽略了大多数或所有替代价格。这些相关变量的遗漏使所产生的自身价格估计偏向非弹性的产出效应。该论点意味着需要对整个价格相互关系系统进行估计，以便更充分地理解单个作物的供应响应。但是，与此同时，这种推理强调了获得这样一个估算系统的困难-Catch 22现象。

著录项

  • 作者

    MCKINZIE, LAWRENCE D., III.;

  • 作者单位

    Purdue University.;

  • 授予单位 Purdue University.;
  • 学科 Agricultural economics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1983
  • 页码 197 p.
  • 总页数 197
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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