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FISCAL POLICY EFFECTS ON GROWTH AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN A DUALISTIC ECONOMY: SIMULATIONS FOR SWAZILAND.

机译：财政政策对双元经济增长和结构变化的影响：对瑞士的模拟。

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摘要

This study investigates the likely effects of sustained shifts in fiscal policy on the structure and growth of a dualistic economy--with a focus on Swaziland's urban employment, sectoral production and rural-urban migration. It begins with an analysis of the historical origins and contemporary form of Swaziland's dualism within agriculture, and between agriculture and non-agriculture.;Due to data limitations, the model is estimated equation by equation. On the basis of a series of tests it is found to be plausible. A simulation exercise is then undertaken wherein fiscal instruments are changed and the resulting solution set compared with that corresponding to the actual fiscal regime prevailing over 1968-78.;There are four major results from the simulations. First, shifts in fiscal policy are likely to significantly alter sectoral structure. Second, to raise the urban employment rate and sectoral production (particularly on the communally-owned component of agriculture), appropriate fiscal policy options are: introducing an urban wage-subsidy, raising the share of public investment allocated to agriculture, reducing the rate of public consumption, raising average effective taxation on urban incomes, or raising average effective indirect taxation. Third, re-gearing industrial tax concessions away from capital into labour is likely to raise not only the urban employment rate, but also sectoral production. Finally, a fiscal re-distribution of economic surplus created in non-agriculture is likely to be more successful in accelerating development than reliance on the "trickle down" effects of growth.;This is followed by a literature review which focuses on the main features of the pioneering dual-sector models and the direction of subsequent theoretical and empirical research. It is found that although the literature is quite extensive and treats various aspects of development to various degrees of sophistication, it does not seem to give adequate and explicit treatment of the public sector. The forty-seven equation model formulated for the present study attempts to remedy this through a set of relations describing public sector activities in a dualistic framework, including the explicit incorporation of fiscal instruments in a number of behavioural functions.
机译：这项研究调查了财政政策持续变化对二元经济结构和增长的可能影响-重点是斯威士兰的城市就业，部门生产和城乡移民。首先分析了斯威士兰在农业内部以及在农业与非农业之间的二元论的历史渊源和当代形式。由于数据的局限性，该模型是按方程式估算的。根据一系列测试，发现是合理的。然后进行一次模拟练习，其中更改了财务工具，并将结果集与对应于1968-78年的实际财务制度的解决方案进行了比较。首先，财政政策的变化可能会大大改变部门结构。其次，为提高城市就业率和部门生产（特别是农业的公有部门），适当的财政政策选择是：实行城市工资补贴，提高分配给农业的公共投资份额，降低农业生产的比例。公共消费，提高城市居民平均平均有效税率或提高平均有效间接税。第三，将工业税收减让从资本转移到劳动力，这不仅会提高城市就业率，而且还会提高部门生产。最后，对非农业创造的经济盈余进行财政重新分配可能比依靠增长的“ tri脚”效应更能成功地促进发展。开创性的双部门模型及其后续理论和实证研究的方向。人们发现，尽管文献非常丰富，并以不同程度处理了发展的各个方面，但似乎没有对公共部门给予充分和明确的对待。为本研究制定的47个方程模型试图通过在二元框架中描述公共部门活动的一组关系来纠正这一问题，其中包括将财政手段明确纳入许多行为功能中。

著录项

  • 作者

    MATSEBULA, MICHAEL SISA.;

  • 作者单位

    Queen's University (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 Queen's University (Canada).;
  • 学科 Economics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1981
  • 页码 1 p.
  • 总页数 1
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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