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Urban Transport Project Prioritization Strategy in Developing Countries: A Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Perspective.

机译：发展中国家的城市交通项目优先战略：基于场景的多标准决策分析视角。

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摘要

Given unprecedented levels of urbanization and motorization in developing countries and deteriorating infrastructure in developed countries, cities around the world have been facing the enormous challenge of delivering sustainable forms of infrastructure with fewer resources. In the developing world, the challenges in urban infrastructure investment become even more daunting as manifested by the staggering size of infrastructure funding gap. ;Nevertheless, effective prioritization of infrastructure projects is hindered by a series of constraints including institutionalized inefficiency, inadequate data obstructing decision making, insufficient coordination among various stakeholders, lack of public consultation, lack of technical capacity for project evaluation and prioritization, and lack of consideration of possible alternatives in the infrastructure planning. Although there has been considerable discussion regarding the shortcomings of contemporary metropolitan transportation planning, there has been little effort to develop a strategy for prioritizing urban transport projects in developing countries. This calls for a new approach to addressing the above-mentioned issues.;This thesis first presents the current status and general characteristics of urban transport decision-making in developed and developing countries alike. It then provides a comprehensive literature review on the evolution and application of scenario planning and multi-criteria, specifically in the field of transportation projects prioritization and transportation planning. As the main contribution of this research effort to current research, a novel project prioritization framework---which incorporates scenario planning into multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for prioritizing urban transport projects---is proposed to support sustainable urban transport development, through the efficient use of existing project evaluation information and emergent scenario of various stakeholder's input. Such integration of scenario planning and MCDA provides a balanced view of both the analytical and intuitive components of the decision-making process and allow comparisons between different roles of various stakeholders.;The framework is then applied to set priorities for nine recent urban transport projects constructed within a two-year framework in the Tianjin Binhai New Area, China. In addition, a case study on World Bank's infrastructure investment portfolio in China is also conducted in which a selection of urban transport projects in eight different cities is ranked. The results show that the proposed framework could serve as a consistent, robust and comprehensive infrastructure project prioritization strategy that reconciles diverse perspectives among stakeholders while introducing sustainability in urban transport decision making and linking the prioritization process to the transportation planning that precedes it.
机译：鉴于发展中国家前所未有的城市化和机动化水平以及发达国家基础设施的恶化，世界各地的城市都面临着以更少的资源提供可持续形式的基础设施的巨大挑战。在发展中世界，城市基础设施投资的挑战变得更加艰巨，这从基础设施资金缺口的惊人规模中可以看出。 ；然而，基础设施项目的有效优先排序受到一系列约束，包括制度化的效率低下，数据阻碍决策的不足，各利益相关方之间的协调不足，缺乏公众咨询，缺乏项目评估和优先排序的技术能力以及缺乏考虑基础架构规划中可能的替代方案。尽管对当代都市交通规划的弊端进行了大量讨论，但几乎没有努力制定战略来优先考虑发展中国家的城市交通项目。这就要求解决上述问题的一种新方法。本文首先介绍了发达国家和发展中国家城市交通决策的现状和一般特征。然后，它提供了有关方案规划和多准则的演变和应用的综合文献综述，特别是在运输项目优先级和运输规划领域。作为这项研究工作对当前研究的主要贡献，提出了一种新颖的项目优先排序框架-将情景规划纳入多标准决策分析（MCDA）中，以优先考虑城市交通项目-旨在支持可持续的城市交通发展，通过有效利用现有项目评估信息和各种利益相关者输入的紧急情况。情景规划和MCDA的这种整合为决策过程的分析和直观组成部分提供了平衡的视图，并允许在各个利益相关者的不同角色之间进行比较;然后将该框架应用于为九个最近建设的城市交通项目设定优先级在中国天津滨海新区为期两年的框架内。此外，还对世界银行在中国的基础设施投资组合进行了案例研究，对在八个不同城市中的城市交通项目进行了排名。结果表明，提出的框架可以用作一致，健壮和全面的基础设施项目优先级战略，该战略可以协调利益相关者之间的不同观点，同时在城市交通决策中引入可持续性并将优先级过程与之前的交通规划联系起来。

著录项

  • 作者

    Liu, Muqing.;

  • 作者单位

    Columbia University.;

  • 授予单位 Columbia University.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2015
  • 页码 169 p.
  • 总页数 169
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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