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Top income inequality, aggregate saving and the gains from trade.

机译：最高的收入不平等，总储蓄和贸易收益。

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摘要

Canonical studies of trade liberalization focus on its effects on aggregate income and on the distribution of income. The interaction between these two effects of trade liberalization has been less studied. In this dissertation, I study this interaction. More precisely, I study the relationship between international trade and income inequality, with a focus on the implications for aggregate saving and the gains from trade. I argue that accounting for the effects of international trade on income inequality among entrepreneurs can imply higher gains from trade for workers.;In the second chapter, I construct a dynamic model of international trade with incomplete markets. In the model, entrepreneurs face uninsurable idiosyncratic productivity risk, and thus save. Since the most productive entrepreneurs have the highest saving rate and are the ones that export, a reduction in trade costs increases their share of total profits and their savings, which leads to a large increase in the aggregate supply of capital and increased capital accumulation. I calibrate the model using US data and examine the effects of international trade on aggregate output, the consumption of workers, and the consumption of entrepreneurs with heterogeneous productivity. In the model, international trade increases aggregate output by 2.5% and the wage of workers by 3.4%. On the other hand, while the aggregate consumption of entrepreneurs is unchanged by international trade, the increase in inequality of profits among entrepreneurs implies that the certainty-equivalent consumption of a typical entrepreneur actually decreases by 4.0%. Capital accumulation plays an important role in the model, accounting for 51.9% of the output gains from trade. To isolate the effects of the proposed mechanism, I construct a benchmark model with complete markets, in which firms with heterogeneous productivity are owned by a single entrepreneur. In this complete markets benchmark, the increase in aggregate output due to international trade is 1.8% while the increase in the wage of workers from trade is 2.7%. Therefore, the novel mechanism in my model increases the wage gains for workers by 25.9%, and the gains in aggregate output by 38.9%, compared to the complete markets benchmark.;In the third chapter, I test the key predictions of the model using country-level data. Using fixed-effects (FE) regressions in a large panel of countries, I find a significant and positive correlation between trade openness and the aggregate saving rate. I find a much weaker relationship between trade openness and the investment rate. Furthermore, I show that greater trade openness has a stronger effect on the aggregate saving rate in a country where the initial top 10% share of total income (before any changes in trade openness) is higher. This is in line with my model where the increase in the aggregate saving is driven by top income earners. Additionally, I build on the gravity-based instrumental-variable (IV) approach pioneered by Frankel and Romer (1999) and extend it to a panel setting. I find a larger effect of trade openness on the aggregate saving rate in the fixed-effects panel regressions with IV than without IV. The results provide strong evidence that a supply-side channel of increased capital accumulation is operative following an increase in trade openness.;In the fourth chapter, I study the relationship between the household saving rate and openness in China through the lens of the framework outlined in the second chapter. I show that there has been a large increase in top income shares both among entrepreneurs and workers over the past 30 years in China. Additionally, there is a very significant and positive correlation between top income shares and the household saving rate across Chinese counties. Using the setting of the 1992 liberalization episode, I find that provinces with a greater increase in openness experienced a larger increase in the household saving rate during the period. Taken together, the evidence is supportive of the hypothesis that greater openness increases the household saving rate in China, by increasing the share of total income received by the highest-income households who also have the highest saving rate.
机译：贸易自由化的规范研究集中在贸易自由化对总收入和收入分配的影响上。贸易自由化这两种影响之间的相互作用研究较少。在本文中，我研究了这种相互作用。更确切地说，我研究了国际贸易与收入不平等之间的关系，重点是对储蓄总额和贸易收益的影响。我认为，考虑到国际贸易对企业家之间收入不平等的影响，可能意味着从工人贸易中获得了更高的收益。在第二章中，我构建了一个具有不完整市场的动态国际贸易模型。在该模型中，企业家面临不可保的特殊生产力风险，因此可以节省。由于生产效率最高的企业家是储蓄率最高的企业，并且是出口的企业家，因此贸易成本的降低增加了他们在总利润和储蓄中所占的份额，从而导致总资本供应大量增加，资本积累增加。我使用美国的数据对模型进行了校准，并研究了国际贸易对总产出，工人的消费以及异质生产率的企业家的消费的影响。在该模型中，国际贸易使总产值增长2.5％，工人工资增长3.4％。另一方面，尽管企业家的总消费因国际贸易而没有变化，但企业家之间利润不平等的增加意味着典型企业家的确定性当量消费实际上减少了4.0％。资本积累在模型中起着重要作用，占贸易产出收益的51.9％。为了隔离所提出机制的影响，我构建了一个具有完整市场的基准模型，其中具有异质生产率的公司由一个企业家拥有。在这个完整的市场基准中，国际贸易带来的总产出增长为1.8％，而贸易工人的工资增长为2.7％。因此，与完整的市场基准相比，我模型中的新颖机制将工人的工资收益提高了25.9％，将总产出的收益提高了38.9％。在第三章中，我使用以下方法检验了模型的关键预测：国家/地区数据。通过在许多国家中使用固定效应（FE）回归，我发现贸易开放度与总储蓄率之间存在显着正相关。我发现贸易开放度和投资率之间的关系要弱得多。此外，我表明，在一个国家中，最初的总收入的前10％份额较高（在贸易开放性发生任何变化之前）较高的国家，更大的贸易开放性对总储蓄率的影响更大。这与我的模型一致，在该模型中，总储蓄的增加是由高收入者驱动的。此外，我基于Frankel和Romer（1999）率先提出的基于重力的工具变量（IV）方法，并将其扩展到面板设置。在有IV的固定效应面板回归中，我发现贸易开放度对总储蓄率的影响大于无IV的情况。结果提供了有力的证据，表明随着贸易开放度的增加，资本积累增加的供应方渠道是可操作的。第四章，我通过概述的框架研究了中国居民储蓄率与开放度之间的关系。在第二章中。我表明，过去30年来，中国的企业家和工人的最高收入份额都有了大幅度的增长。此外，中国各县的最高收入份额与家庭储蓄率之间存在非常显着的正相关关系。使用1992年自由化时期的背景，我发现开放程度增加的省份在此期间的家庭储蓄率增加幅度更大。综上所述，有证据支持以下假设：更大程度的开放会通过增加也有最高储蓄率的最高收入家庭在总收入中所占的比例来增加中国的储蓄率。

著录项

  • 作者

    Tang, Lixin.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Maryland, College Park.;

  • 授予单位 University of Maryland, College Park.;
  • 学科 Economics.;Economic theory.;Commerce-Business.;Finance.;Asian studies.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2015
  • 页码 160 p.
  • 总页数 160
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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