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首页> 外文学位 >Extreme Storm Surge Hazard Estimation and Windstorm Vulnerability Assessment for Quantitative Risk Analysis.
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Extreme Storm Surge Hazard Estimation and Windstorm Vulnerability Assessment for Quantitative Risk Analysis.

机译：用于定量风险分析的极端风暴潮危险估计和风暴脆弱性评估。

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摘要

Quantification of risk to natural disasters is a valuable endeavor from engineering, policy and (re)insurance perspectives. This work presents two research efforts relating to meteorological risk, specifically with regard to storm surge hazard estimation and wind vulnerability assessment.;While many high water level hazard estimation methods have been presented in the literature and used in industry applications, none bases its results on disaggregated tidal gauge data while also capturing the effects of the evolution of storm surge over the duration of a storm. Additionally, the coastal destruction wreaked by Hurricane Sandy in 2012 prompted motivation to estimate the event's return period. To that end, this dissertation first presents the motivation for and development of the clustered separated peaks-over-threshold simulation (CSPS) method, a novel approach to the estimation of high water level return periods at coastal locations. The CSPS uses a Monte Carlo simulation of storm surge activity based on statistics derived from tidal gauge data. The data are separated into three independent components (storm surge, tidal cycle and sea level rise) because different physical processes govern different components of water level. Peak storm surge heights are fit to the generalized Pareto distribution, chosen for its ability to fit a wide tail to limited data, and a clustering algorithm incorporates the evolution of storm surge over surge duration. Confidence intervals on the return period estimates are computed by applying the bootstrapping method to the storm surge data.;Two case studies demonstrate the application of the CSPS to coastal tidal gauge data. First, the CSPS is applied to tidal gauge data from lower Manhattan. The results suggest that the return period of Hurricane Sandy's peak water level is 103 years (95% confidence interval 38--452 years). That the CSPS estimate is significantly lower than previously published return periods indicates that storm surge hazard in the New York Harbor has, until now, been underestimated. The CSPS is also applied to all tidal gauge stations managed by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for which the hourly water level time histories are at least 30 years long. Comparison to NOAA's exceedance probability levels for these stations suggests that the CSPS estimates higher return levels than NOAA, but also that the NOAA values fall within the 95% CI from the CSPS for more than half of the stations tested.;This dissertation continues with a critical comparison of windstorm vulnerability models. The intent of this research is to provide a compendium of reference curves against which to compare damage curves used in the reinsurance industry. The models tend to represent specific types of construction and use varying characteristic wind speed measurements to represent storm intensity. Wind speed conversion methods are used to harmonize wind speed scales. The different vulnerability models analyzed stem from different datasets and hypotheses, thus rendering them relevant to certain geographies or structural typologies. The resulting collection of comparable windstorm vulnerability models can serve as a reference framework against which damage curves from catastrophe risk models can be evaluated.
机译：从工程，政策和（再）保险的角度来看，量化自然灾害风险是一项宝贵的努力。这项工作提出了两项​​与气象风险有关的研究工作，特别是关于风暴潮危害评估和风害脆弱性评估方面的研究。文献中虽然提出了许多高水位危害评估方法，并在工业应用中使用了这些方法，但都没有基于其结果。分解潮汐仪数据，同时还捕获风暴持续时间内风暴潮演变的影响。此外，飓风桑迪（Sandy）在2012年造成的沿海破坏也促使人们有动力估算事件的复归期。为此，本文首先介绍了聚类的分离式阈值以上峰值模拟（CSPS）方法的动机和发展，该方法是一种估算沿海地区高水位回水期的新方法。 CSPS使用基于潮汐仪数据的统计数据的风暴潮活动的蒙特卡洛模拟。数据分为三个独立的部分（风暴潮，潮汐周期和海平面上升），因为不同的物理过程控制着水位的不同部分。峰值风暴潮高度适合一般的Pareto分布，其选择是因为其能够使宽尾巴适合有限的数据，并且聚类算法结合了风暴潮在浪涌持续时间内的演变。通过将自举法应用于风暴潮数据来计算回归期估计值的置信区间。两个案例研究证明了CSPS在沿海潮汐仪数据中的应用。首先，将CSPS应用于来自曼哈顿下城的潮汐仪数据。结果表明，飓风桑迪的最高水位恢复期为103年（95％置信区间38--452年）。 CSPS的估算值明显低于先前公布的返回期，这表明到目前为止，纽约港口的风暴潮危害尚未被低估。 CSPS还适用于国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）管理的所有潮汐站，这些站的小时水位时间历史至少为30年。与这些站点的NOAA超出概率水平进行比较表明，CSPS估计的回报水平要高于NOAA，而且在超过一半的受测站点中，NOAA值均低于CSPS的95％CI。暴风雨脆弱性模型的关键比较。这项研究的目的是提供参考曲线概述，以与之比较再保险行业中使用的损失曲线。这些模型倾向于表示特定的建筑类型，并使用变化的特征风速测量值来表示风暴强度。风速转换方法用于协调风速标度。分析的不同漏洞模型来自不同的数据集和假设，因此使它们与某些地理区域或结构类型相关。由此产生的可比较的暴风雨脆弱性模型集合可以作为参考框架，可以据此评估巨灾风险模型的破坏曲线。

著录项

  • 作者

    Lopeman, Madeleine.;

  • 作者单位

    Columbia University.;

  • 授予单位 Columbia University.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.;Hydrology.;Statistics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2015
  • 页码 166 p.
  • 总页数 166
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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