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Optimizing Local Least Squares Regression for Short Term Wind Prediction.

机译:优化局部最小二乘回归以进行短期风能预测。

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摘要

Highly variable wind velocities in many geographical areas make wind farm integration into the electrical grid difficult. Since a turbine's electricity output is directly related to wind speed, predicting wind speed will help grid operators predict wind farm electricity output. The goal of experimentation was to discover a way to combine machine learning techniques into an algorithm which is faster than traditional approaches, as accurate or even more so, and easy to implement, which would makes it ideal for industry use. Local Least Squares Regression satisfies these constraints by using a predetermined time window over which a model can be trained, then at each time step trains a new model to predict wind speed values which could subsequently be transmitted to utilities and grid operators. This algorithm can be optimized by finding parameters within the search space which create a model with the lowest root mean squared error.
机译:在许多地理区域,风速变化很大,使得风电场难以整合到电网中。由于涡轮的电力输出与风速直接相关,因此预测风速将有助于电网运营商预测风电场的电力输出。实验的目的是发现一种将机器学习技术组合到算法中的方法,该方法比传统方法更快甚至更准确,更易于实施,这使其成为行业使用的理想选择。局部最小二乘回归通过使用可在其上训练模型的预定时间窗来满足这些约束,然后在每个时间步训练一个新模型以预测风速值,然后将其传输给公用事业和电网运营商。可以通过在搜索空间中找到创建具有最低均方根误差的模型的参数来优化该算法。

著录项

  • 作者

    Keith, Erin S.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Nevada, Reno.;

  • 授予单位 University of Nevada, Reno.;
  • 学科 Computer science.;Alternative Energy.
  • 学位 M.S.
  • 年度 2015
  • 页码 53 p.
  • 总页数 53
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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