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Fully Nonparametric Efficient Estimation for Some Causal Inference Problems and Well-posedness on Mean Field Theory

机译:基于均值场理论的某些因果推理问题和适定性的完全非参数有效估计

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摘要

In this thesis, we develop fully nonparametric efficient methods to estimate average treatment effects and natural mediation effects, which are the major concerns in causal inference framework. Besides, we also systematically study the well-posedness of the mean-field type forward-backward stochastic differential equations.;The first topic is the estimation of average treatment effects based on observational data, which is extremely important in practice and has been studied by generations of statisticians under different frameworks. Existing globally efficient estimators require non-parametric estimation of a propensity score function, an outcome regression function or both, but their performance can be poor in practical sample sizes. Without explicitly estimating either functions, we consider a wide class of calibration weights constructed to attain an exact three-way balance of the moments of observed covariates among the treated, the control, and the combined group. The wide class includes exponential tilting, empirical likelihood and generalized regression as important special cases, and extends survey calibration estimators to different statistical problems and with important distinctions. Global semiparametric efficiency for the estimation of average treatment effects is established for this general class of calibration estimators. The results show that efficiency can be achieved by solely balancing the covariate distributions without resorting to direct estimation of propensity score or outcome regression function. We also propose a consistent estimator for the efficient asymptotic variance, which does not involve additional functional estimation of either the propensity score or the outcome regression functions. The proposed variance estimator outperforms existing estimators that require a direct approximation of the efficient influence function.;The second topic is the estimation of mediation effects, which is central to understand the causal mechanism related to how the treatment works in the evaluation of a program intervention. In particular, it is often important to understand to what extent the overall treatment effects is being mediated through an intermediate variable. The overall treatment effect can be decomposed into a natural direct effect and a natural indirect effect, and the estimation of mediation effects typically involve parametric modeling of three conditional distributions. Without directly estimating these three unspecified functions, we propose a class of nonparametric calibration weights that balance certain empirical moments of the mediator and covariates. The proposed estimators are shown to be globally semiparametric efficient for the estimation of the natural direct and indirect effects, respectively. Consistent asymptotic variance estimates are also proposed.;The last topic investigates the well-posedness of mean-field type forward-backward stochastic differential equations, which plays a paramount role in mean field game and mean field control theory. Being motivated by a recent pioneer work Carmona and Delarue [11], in Chapter 9, we propose a broad class of natural monotonicity conditions under which the unique existence of the solutions to mean-field type (MFT) forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDE) can be established. Our conditions provided here are consistent with those normally adopted in the traditional FBSDE (without the interference of a mean-field) frameworks, and give a generic explanation on the unique existence of solutions to common MFT-FBSDEs, such as those in the linear-quadratic setting; besides, the conditions are `optimal' in a certain sense that can elaborate on how their counter-example in Carmona and Delarue [11] just fails to ensure its well-posedness. In addition, a stability theorem is also included,
机译:在本文中,我们开发了完全非参数有效的方法来估计平均处理效果和自然中介效果,这是因果推理框架中的主要问题。此外,我们还系统地研究了均值场型前后随机微分方程的适定性。第一个主题是基于观测数据的平均治疗效果估算,这在实践中非常重要,并且已经被研究。不同框架下的几代统计学家。现有的全局有效估计器需要对倾向得分函数,结果回归函数或两者进行非参数估计,但是在实际样本量中它们的性能可能很差。在没有明确估计这两个函数的情况下,我们考虑了广泛的校准权重,以实现治疗组,对照组和合并组之间观察到的协变量矩的精确三向平衡。广泛的类别包括指数倾斜,经验似然和广义回归作为重要的特殊情况,并将调查校准估计量扩展到不同的统计问题并具有重要的区别。对于这种一般的校准估计器类,建立了用于估计平均治疗效果的全局半参数效率。结果表明,仅通过协变量分布的平衡就可以实现效率,而不必借助倾向得分或结果回归函数的直接估计。我们还为有效渐近方差提出了一个一致的估计量,该估计量不涉及倾向得分或结果回归函数的其他功能估计。拟议的方差估计量胜过需要直接近似有效影响函数的现有估计量。第二个主题是中介效应的估计,这是理解与项目干预评估中的处理方式有关的因果机制的中心。尤其重要的是,了解通过中间变量在多大程度上介导总体治疗效果。整体治疗效果可以分解为自然直接效果和自然间接效果,中介效果的估算通常涉及三个条件分布的参数化建模。在不直接估计这三个未指定函数的情况下,我们提出了一类非参数校准权重,该权重平衡了中介体和协变量的某些经验矩。所提出的估计量显示出对于全局自然半参数有效,分别用于估计自然的直接和间接影响。最后,研究了均值场型前后随机微分方程的适定性,它在均值场博弈和均值场控制理论中起着至关重要的作用。受最近的开创性工作Carmona和Delarue [11]的启发,在第9章中,我们提出了一类自然的单调条件,在该条件下,均值类型(MFT)的正反随机微分方程解的唯一存在( FBSDE)可以建立。此处提供的条件与传统FBSDE框架中通常采用的条件(没有均值场的干扰)相一致,并且对常见MFT-FBSDE解决方案的独特存在(例如线性模型中的解决方案)进行了一般性解释。二次设定此外,从某种意义上说,条件是“最优的”,可以详细说明它们在卡莫纳(Carmona)和德拉拉(Delarue)[11]中的反例如何无法确保其恰当的定位。此外,还包括稳定性定理,

著录项

  • 作者

    Zhang, Zheng.;

  • 作者单位

    The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong).;

  • 授予单位 The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong).;
  • 学科 Statistics.;Applied mathematics.;Social research.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2015
  • 页码 230 p.
  • 总页数 230
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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