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An Analysis of the Appreciation of the Chinese Currency and Influences on China's Economy.

机译:人民币升值及其对中国经济的影响分析。

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摘要

In recent years, China's economy development has had more and more impact on the global economy. The Chinese currency continued to appreciate since 2005, which has had both positive and negative results on Chinese's economy. The Chinese government uses the monetary policy to control the inflation pressure, which could work counter to Chinese exchange rate policy. RMB appreciation also has some effects on the Chinese banking system. Through the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), a global computable general equilibrium model, we analyze how, when there is RMB appreciation, the Chinese exports and imports, and Chinese employment and income inequality react. The model suggests that exchange rate appreciation would reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy, and also have a negative relationship with the employment rate and income inequality. RMB appreciation might have a little positive effect on housing price increases; it's good for real estate investment, but needs to be controlled in case the housing bubble bursts. RMB appreciation should help to keep overall inflation lower, the trade balance between the U.S. and China will only have a small effect by RMB appreciation, and if the currency appreciation is combined with other reforms instead of appreciation alone, that would boost the global economy. If China is able to allow rising real wages in a way that increases domestic consumption, the negative effects of RMB appreciation on employment in China may be offset.
机译:近年来,中国的经济发展对全球经济的影响越来越大。自2005年以来,人民币持续升值,对中国经济产生了积极和消极的影响。中国政府使用货币政策来控制通货膨胀压力,这可能与中国的汇率政策背道而驰。人民币升值对中国银行体系也有一定影响。通过全球可计算的一般均衡模型全球贸易分析项目(GTAP),我们分析了人民币升值时中国进出口贸易以及中国就业和收入不平等的反应。该模型表明,汇率升值会降低货币政策的有效性,并且与就业率和收入不平等之间存在负相关关系。人民币升值可能对房价上涨产生积极影响;这对房地产投资很有好处,但需要控制,以防房地产泡沫破裂。人民币升值应有助于保持总体通货膨胀率的降低,中美之间的贸易平衡只会受到人民币升值的影响很小,如果将货币升值与其他改革相结合而不是单独进行升值,那将提振全球经济。如果中国能够以增加国内消费的方式允许实际工资上涨,那么人民币升值对中国就业的负面影响可能会被抵消。

著录项

  • 作者

    Ma, Lina.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Denver.;

  • 授予单位 University of Denver.;
  • 学科 Economics.;Economic theory.;Commerce-Business.
  • 学位 M.A.
  • 年度 2014
  • 页码 79 p.
  • 总页数 79
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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