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Modeling a market for natural catastrophe insurance.

机译:为自然巨灾保险市场建模。

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摘要

This dissertation introduces a game theoretic modeling framework and a series of models to examine the interactions between the key stakeholders (property owners, insurers, reinsurers and government) of a natural catastrophe insurance market, which possesses a complicated structure and faces many challenges from the natural catastrophe loss. Specifically, we integrate (1) a utility-based homeowner decision model; (2) a stochastic optimization model to optimize reinsurance decision by the primary insurer(s); (3) a heuristic government intervention model to reduce uninsured losses through price support for insurance purchase and acquisition; and (4) a state-of-the-art regional catastrophe loss estimation model, all within the framework of a static Cournot-Nash noncooperative game assuming perfect information. We allow the number of primary insurers to increase from one (monopoly) to many (oligopoly) within the Cournot-Nash framework, and examines the impacts of competition on market performance from each stakeholder's perspective. An automatic Response-Surface and Trust-Region algorithm is developed to solve the models for real, regional applications. A case study for residential wood frame buildings in Eastern North Carolina is presented. The case study suggests that: (a) private insurance market competition is an efficient mechanism to reduce uninsured loss, which should be facilitated by government; (b) more competition challenges insurers but benefits homeowners, and there exists a balance between insurer profitability and insurance penetration; (c) acquisition, price support and encouraging insurers to keep catastrophe reserve can all improve market performance and reduce uninsured loss; and (d) catastrophe reserves should be encouraged, which not only help insurers to avoid insolvency, but could also limit competition if imposed as barrier of entry, thus improve their profitability.
机译:本文介绍了一个博弈论建模框架和一系列模型,以研究自然巨灾保险市场的主要利益相关者(财产所有人,保险公司,再保险公司和政府)之间的相互作用,该模型结构复杂且面临着自然灾害的众多挑战。巨灾损失。具体来说,我们整合(1)基于实用程序的房主决策模型; (2)随机优化模型,以优化主要保险公司的再保险决策; (3)启发式政府干预模型,通过对购买和购买保险的价格支持来减少未保险损失; (4)最先进的区域性巨灾损失估算模型,所有模型都在假设理想信息的静态古诺·纳什非合作博弈框架内进行。在古诺—纳什框架内,我们允许主要保险公司的数量从一个(垄断)增加到许多(寡头),并从每个利益相关者的角度研究竞争对市场绩效的影响。开发了一种自动响应表面和信任区域算法来解决实际,区域性应用程序的模型。本文以北卡罗莱纳州东部的住宅木结构建筑为例。案例研究表明:(a)私人保险市场竞争是减少未保险损失的有效机制,应由政府推动; (b)更多的竞争挑战给保险公司带来了挑战,但使房主受益,而且保险公司的盈利能力和保险普及率之间存在平衡; (c)收购,价格支持以及鼓励保险公司保留巨灾储备都可以改善市场表现并减少未保险损失; (d)应鼓励巨灾储备,这不仅有助于保险公司避免破产,而且如果作为进入壁垒而施加限制,也可以限制竞争,从而提高其盈利能力。

著录项

  • 作者

    Gao, Yang.;

  • 作者单位

    Cornell University.;

  • 授予单位 Cornell University.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.;Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2014
  • 页码 121 p.
  • 总页数 121
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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