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首页> 外文学位 >Improving Wind Ramp Predictions Using Gabor Filtering and Statistical Scenarios.
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Improving Wind Ramp Predictions Using Gabor Filtering and Statistical Scenarios.

机译：使用Gabor滤波和统计方案改善风坡预测。

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摘要

The increase of wind penetration into electric power system creates challenges to power grid management due to the variable nature of wind. Unlike conventional power plants, such as thermal, gas or hydro-based plants, wind power generation is not controllable. For example, days of calm weather may suddenly be followed by gusty winds associated with a storm or a front.;In this study different strategies are developed to improve wind ramp prediction and to provide additional probabilistic information of wind ramp occurrences to end users. First, a methodology of separate wind power predictions based on different weather regimes is presented. Second, an independent wind ramp prediction system is proposed to complement conventional ramp predictions. This system integrates information about the pressure gradient that is extracted by applying Gabor filters to two-dimensional pressure grids. Third, the temporal uncertainty of wind ramp occurrences is addressed using power scenarios generated from quantile forecasts of wind power. The probability of a wind ramp occurrence conditional to the number of scenarios predicting the ramp within certain time intervals is estimated using a logistic regression technique. The proposed strategies were tested on four wind farms located in southern Alberta, Canada, and their performance is discussed.;The current wind power forecasting methodologies, which combine Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and mathematical methods, have been well established during the last decade. However, this forecasting methodology has demonstrated a limited ability to forecast wind ramp events, which are defined as sudden, large changes in wind production.
机译：由于风的可变性，增加风向电力系统的渗透对电网管理提出了挑战。与传统的发电厂不同，例如火力发电厂，天然气发电厂或水力发电厂，风力发电是不可控制的。例如，在天气平静的日子里可能突然出现与风暴或阵风相关的阵风。在本研究中，开发了不同的策略来改善风坡预测并向最终用户提供风坡发生的其他概率信息。首先，提出了一种基于不同天气状况的独立风能预测方法。其次，提出了独立的风坡预测系统来补充常规的风坡预测。该系统集成了有关压力梯度的信息，该信息是通过将Gabor滤波器应用于二维压力网格而提取的。第三，使用从风能的分位数预测中生成的功率场景来解决风坡发生的时间不确定性。使用逻辑回归技术估计风斜坡出现的概率，该概率取决于在一定时间间隔内预测斜坡的场景数量。拟议的策略在加拿大艾伯塔省南部的四个风电场进行了测试，并讨论了它们的性能。十年。但是，这种预测方法论证明了预测风坡事件的能力有限，风事件被定义为风力生产中的突然大变化。

著录项

  • 作者

    Li, Yaqiong.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Alberta (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 University of Alberta (Canada).;
  • 学科 Electrical engineering.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2014
  • 页码 124 p.
  • 总页数 124
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 老年病学;
  • 关键词

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