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Sovereign debt and tax collection dynamics in Argentina.

机译：阿根廷的主权债务和税收征管动态。

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摘要

This manuscript examines how the dynamic macroeconomic effects from shocks to taxes and inflation differ between the United States and Argentina. On the fiscal side, wages, private capital, and consumption tax cuts have long-run revenue growth effects (in both countries) that mitigate initial tax receipt losses. These growth effects, however, are larger in Argentina -- a country where both the consumption tax rate and sensitivity to wage changes are higher. Specifically, Chapter 2 finds that growth from a U.S. capital tax cut pays for roughly 60% of the initial static loss, whereas the corresponding effect in Argentina is 80%. On the monetary side, multiple regimes are then considered with money in the utility function to determine optimal scenarios, holding tax revenues constant. Chapter 3 concludes that distortions from taxes on wages, private capital, and inflation outweigh the efficiency losses from a consumption tax, and as such, an economy whose government places more emphasis on consumption to generate tax receipts achieves higher utility. The tax frameworks introduced in Chapters 2 and 3 build from the neoclassical Ramsey growth models. Inflation's role as a source of revenue via seigniorage in Chapter 3 is extended to the Argentine fixed income market in Chapter 4. Using proprietary pricing data and a structural vector autoregression framework, Chapter 4 finds that inflation as a predictor of the probability of default in Argentina is much larger than the government claims it to be; despite non-investment-grade government bonds, Argentina's fixed income market actually became more attractive during the U.S. mortgage crisis; and global risk aversion has predictive power in explaining sovereign spreads.
机译：这份手稿考察了美国和阿根廷之间因税收和通货膨胀的冲击而产生的动态宏观经济效应之间的差异。在财政方面，工资，私人资本和消费税的削减对两国都有长期的收入增长影响，从而减轻了最初的税收收入损失。但是，这些增长影响在阿根廷更大-阿根廷的消费税率和工资变化敏感性较高。具体而言，第2章发现，美国削减资本税所产生的增长约占最初静态损失的60％，而阿根廷的相应影响为80％。在货币方面，然后考虑在效用函数中使用货币的多种制度，以确定最佳方案，同时保持税收收入不变。第三章得出结论，工资税，私人资本税和通货膨胀税造成的扭曲超过了消费税带来的效率损失，因此，一个经济体，其政府更加重视消费以产生税收收入，就可以发挥更高的效用。第2章和第3章介绍的税收框架基于新古典的Ramsey增长模型。第3章将通货膨胀作为通货膨胀的收入来源，而第4章将其扩展到阿根廷固定收益市场。使用专有定价数据和结构向量自回归框架，第4章发现通货膨胀是阿根廷违约概率的预测指标比政府声称的要大得多；尽管有非投资级政府债券，但在美国抵押贷款危机期间，阿根廷的固定收益市场实际上变得更具吸引力；全球风险规避在解释主权债务利差方面具有预测能力。

著录项

  • 作者

    Bauser, Kyle R.;

  • 作者单位

    City University of New York.;

  • 授予单位 City University of New York.;
  • 学科 Economics Commerce-Business.;Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2014
  • 页码 125 p.
  • 总页数 125
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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