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A Cross-Disciplinary Approach to the Maritime Security Risk of Piracy and Lessons Learned from Agent-Based Modeling

机译:跨学科的海盗行为海上安全风险研究方法以及从基于代理的建模中汲取的经验教训

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摘要

This dissertation takes a cross-disciplinary approach to understanding pirate activity. Maritime piracy presents a dynamic ever-evolving problem. In today's globalized world, contemporary maritime piracy presents a transnational threat. It is a complex socio-economic and political problem which the modern world considers to be criminal activity. Like all complex problems it must be deconstructed to fully comprehend it.;All criminal activity, maritime piracy included, has certain elements of supply and demand. For the activity to occur there must be a certain level, or supply, of targets. At the same time, we can posit that there must be a lack of other opportunities for the pirates, who calculate that the risk of engaging in piracy is worthwhile. This risk calculation is a function of the potential rewards minus the sum of the risks. An increase in pirate attacks creates a demand for better maritime security. An increase in maritime security causes an increase in risk to pirates. Improved pirate capabilities may decrease this risk. The result is a constantly evolving complex problem. This study proposes a parsimonious agent-based model, focused on the socio-economic and political variables that encourage piracy, with utility across many specific regional domains. By simplifying the details of certain aspects of the model, the focus is placed on the issues at the heart of the problem. This allows for new insights into the dynamic relationship between these factors.
机译:本文采用跨学科的方法来理解海盗活动。海上盗版提出了一个不断变化的动态问题。在当今全球化的世界中,当代海上海盗行为构成了跨国威胁。这是一个复杂的社会经济和政治问题,现代世界认为这是犯罪活动。像所有复杂的问题一样,必须对其进行分解以充分理解它。;所有犯罪活动,包括海上海盗活动,都有一定的供求要素。为了使活动发生,必须有一定水平的目标或供应。同时,我们可以假定,海盗必须缺少其他机会,海盗们认为进行海盗活动的风险是值得的。此风险计算是潜在报酬减去风险总和的函数。海盗袭击的增加对更好的海上安全提出了要求。海上安全的提高导致海盗的风险增加。改进的海盗能力可以减少这种风险。结果是一个不断发展的复杂问题。这项研究提出了一个基于简约代理人的模型,重点关注鼓励盗版的社会经济和政治变量,并在许多特定区域范围内发挥作用。通过简化模型某些方面的细节,重点放在了问题的核心。这允许对这些因素之间的动态关系有新的见解。

著录项

  • 作者

    Fish, Joanne Marie.;

  • 作者单位

    Old Dominion University.;

  • 授予单位 Old Dominion University.;
  • 学科 International relations.;Systems science.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2017
  • 页码 353 p.
  • 总页数 353
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 古生物学;
  • 关键词

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