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Project management: A simulation-based optimization method for dynamic time-cost tradeoff decisions.

机译：项目管理：一种基于模拟的优化方法，用于动态的时间成本权衡决策。

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摘要

Project managers face difficult decisions with regard to completing projects on time and within the project budget. A successful project manager not only needs to assure that the project is completed, but also desires to make optimal use of resources and maximize the profitability of the project. The goal of this research is to address the time-cost tradeoff problem associated with selecting from among project activity alternatives under uncertainty. Specifically, activities that make up a project may have several alternatives each with an associated cost and stochastic duration. The final project cost is a result of the time and cost required to complete each activity and lateness penalties that may be assessed if the project is not completed by the specified completion time. In an effort to optimize the project time-cost tradeoff, a dynamic, simulation-based optimization method is presented. In particular, the method minimizes the expected project cost due to lateness penalties and the activity alternatives selected. The method is designed to be implemented in two phases. The first phase, referred to as the static phase, is implemented prior to the start of the project. The static phase results in the expected cost for the recommended project configuration including the alternative selected for each activity and the distributions of the project completion and total project cost. The second phase, referred to as the dynamic phase, is implemented as the project progresses. The dynamic phase allows the project manager to reevaluate the remaining project and activity alternatives to dynamically minimize the expected total project cost. The method provides an optimal solution under the assumptions of traditional crashing implementations and a heuristic solution for the generalized problem. An experimental performance evaluation shows the effectiveness of the method for making project management decisions. Finally, the method is fully implemented in computer software and integrated into a commercially available project management tool.
机译：项目经理在按时并在项目预算范围内完成项目时面临艰难的决定。成功的项目经理不仅需要确保项目已经完成，还需要优化利用资源并最大程度地提高项目的获利能力。这项研究的目的是解决与在不确定性下从项目活动备选方案中进行选择相关的时间成本权衡问题。具体来说，组成项目的活动可能具有多种选择，每种选择都有相关的成本和随机持续时间。最终项目成本是完成每个活动所需的时间和成本以及迟到的罚款的结果，如果在指定的完成时间之前未完成项目，则可能要进行评估。为了优化项目的时间成本权衡，提出了一种基于仿真的动态优化方法。特别是，该方法将因迟到罚款和所选活动替代项而导致的预期项目成本降至最低。该方法设计为分两个阶段实施。第一阶段，称为静态阶段，是在项目开始之前实施的。静态阶段会得出建议项目配置的预期成本，其中包括为每个活动选择的替代方案以及项目完成和总项目成本的分配。随着项目的进展，第二阶段称为动态阶段。动态阶段允许项目经理重新评估剩余的项目和活动替代方案，以动态地降低预期的总项目成本。该方法在传统崩溃实现的假设下提供了最佳解决方案，并为广义问题提供了启发式解决方案。实验性绩效评估显示了该方法用于制定项目管理决策的有效性。最后，该方法在计算机软件中完全实现，并集成到可商购的项目管理工具中。

著录项

  • 作者

    Tolentino Pena, Radhames.;

  • 作者单位

    Rochester Institute of Technology.;

  • 授予单位 Rochester Institute of Technology.;
  • 学科 Engineering Industrial.;Operations Research.
  • 学位 M.S.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 189 p.
  • 总页数 189
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 一般工业技术;运筹学;
  • 关键词

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