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A Predictive Analytical Model for Predicting Munitions Surface Clearance Decontamination Activities

机译：弹药表面间隙净化活动预测的预测分析模型

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摘要

Unexploded ordnance contamination in the United States and its Territories has emerged as one of the nation's most significant environmental problems in 2001 and remains a serious environmental concern today. The locations, quantities, depths, and types of munitions remaining and areal extent of contamination at former live-fire training sites are currently unknown and unaccounted for. Site decontamination cleanup often takes longer to complete, necessitates more regulatory attention, and requires significantly more financial investment than anticipated.;The objective of this praxis was to develop a predictive analytics model using multiple regression techniques as a tool for project managers, program managers, field supervisors, and decision makers engaged in munitions response action planning, estimating, and field operations. The application to assist project and program managers in predicting munitions surface clearance rates for the clearance and decontamination of munitions items and munitions-related debris is aimed to support pre-bid decision making in acquisition opportunities, resource and operations planning, and management of ongoing field operations for surface decontamination activities. A forecasting tool will provide for additional risk management oversight to help minimize estimating and operational risks. The model examines the munitions response predictor variables that are significant or not significant in predicting the weekly number of surface acres decontaminated of munitions and munitions-related contamination. Model fitting procedures converged upon a final model able to be used to predict surface acre clearance.
机译：美国及其领土的未爆弹药污染已成为2001年美国最严重的环境问题之一，并且今天仍然是严重的环境问题。目前尚不知道并无法解释以前的实弹训练场所剩余的弹药的位置，数量，深度和类型以及污染的程度。网站净化工作通常需要更长的时间才能完成，需要更多的监管关注，并且需要的资金投入远远超过预期。此实践的目标是使用多种回归技术开发预测性分析模型，将其用作项目经理，项目经理，从事弹药响应行动计划，评估和实地行动的实地主管和决策者。该应用程序可协助项目和计划管理人员预测弹药物品和与弹药相关的碎片的清除和净化的弹药表面清除率，旨在支持在收购机会，资源和运营计划以及进行中的野外管理中进行投标前决策表面净化活动的操作。预测工具将提供额外的风险管理监督，以帮助最大程度地减少估计和操作风险。该模型检查了弹药反应预测变量，这些变量在预测弹药和与弹药相关污染的每周去污地面面积数时，是重要的还是不重要的。模型拟合过程收敛于最终模型，该模型可用于预测地面英亩净空。

著录项

  • 作者

    Penny, Christopher T.;

  • 作者单位

    The George Washington University.;

  • 授予单位 The George Washington University.;
  • 学科 Management.;Statistics.
  • 学位 D.Engr.
  • 年度 2018
  • 页码 173 p.
  • 总页数 173
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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